Rivian and Lucid Warn of Challenges Ahead Amid Policy Shifts and Supply Chain Disruptions

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Electric vehicle makers Rivian (RIVN.O) and Lucid (LCID.O) reported disappointing quarterly earnings and issued cautious outlooks, citing impacts from changing U.S. policies, trade tensions, and supply chain issues. Rivian’s shares dropped about 4% after hours, while Lucid’s shares fell 7%.

Both companies are grappling with multiple headwinds under the Trump administration, including the removal of consumer tax credits, imposition of high tariffs on auto parts imports, and the elimination of emission fines for gas vehicle manufacturers. Additionally, China’s restrictions on exporting heavy rare earth metals—critical for EV motors—have disrupted supply chains and increased production costs in the U.S.

Rivian revealed rising costs in Q2 due to rare earth supply disruptions and raised its adjusted core loss forecast for 2024 as revenue from regulatory credit sales dwindles. The cost per vehicle rose approximately 8% year-over-year to about $118,375, largely reflecting lower production volumes rather than operational inefficiencies, CEO RJ Scaringe explained. Lower production contributed to a $14,000 increase in cost of goods sold per vehicle.

The company plans a three-week production pause in September (following a one-week pause in Q2) to integrate components and prepare for the critical launch of its smaller, more affordable R2 SUV next year.

Lucid said it largely avoided rare earth supply issues by using inventory magnets but faced tariff-related costs that pressured profit margins. The luxury EV maker also lowered its annual production forecast.

The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at September’s end removes a key demand driver. Analysts expect a sales surge in Q3 as buyers rush to benefit from the incentive before it ends, followed by a possible softening in Q4. Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff noted the company is planning countermeasures to mitigate the expected demand slowdown.

The Trump administration’s removal of fuel economy penalties has severely reduced demand for regulatory credits, a significant revenue source for Rivian and Lucid. Rivian said it now expects about half of its initially forecasted $300 million in credit revenue this year and does not anticipate any revenue from credit sales in H2 2024.

Rivian raised its adjusted core loss forecast to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion for 2024, up from prior guidance of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion, but expects to roughly break even on gross profit. The company also anticipates record deliveries in Q3 across consumer and commercial segments, including its electric delivery vans for Amazon, its largest shareholder.

AMD Data Center Revenue Disappoints, Shares Drop About 4%

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) reported weaker-than-expected data center revenue in its second quarter, disappointing investors betting on the company’s AI chip growth potential. Shares of the Santa Clara-based chipmaker fell roughly 4% in extended trading.

While AMD’s stock has climbed over 40% this year—outperforming the chip index’s 12% gain—its data center segment growth lagged behind rival Nvidia (NVDA.O), the dominant player in AI chips. Nvidia’s data center revenue surged 73% to $39.11 billion in its fiscal first quarter, driven by demand for its Blackwell GPUs and networking hardware.

AMD’s second-quarter data center revenue grew 14% to $3.2 billion, close to analysts’ estimate of $3.22 billion. This segment includes both server CPUs and Instinct AI chips. Portfolio manager Dan Morgan from Synovus Trust noted the “lackluster” data center results were concerning given AMD’s reliance on this segment.

CEO Lisa Su said the decline in AI chip revenue year-over-year was due to U.S. export restrictions on shipments to China and the transition to next-gen MI350 AI chips. Production of the MI350 series began ahead of schedule in June, with a planned steep production ramp in the second half of the year.

AMD also revealed that shipments of its MI308 AI chips to China remain on hold pending U.S. government export license approvals, impacting revenue. The company expects to resume shipments once licenses are granted. These export curbs are estimated to reduce AMD’s 2025 revenue by about $1.5 billion, mainly affecting Q2 and Q3.

For Q3, AMD forecast revenue of approximately $8.7 billion (±$300 million), above analyst expectations of $8.3 billion. The company projected adjusted gross margins around 54%, in line with estimates.

Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 were 48 cents on revenue of $7.69 billion, excluding stock-based compensation and other items.

Super Micro’s Quarterly Results Disappoint, Shares Drop Nearly 15.5%

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Super Micro (SMCI.O) missed Wall Street estimates for its fourth-quarter revenue and profit, as the company faces stiff competition from larger server manufacturers in the AI-driven high-performance computing market. Shares plunged about 15.5% in extended trading following the earnings release and multiple downward revisions to its full-year guidance.

The company now forecasts at least $33 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026, falling short of its earlier target of around $40 billion set in February. Analyst expectations averaged $29.94 billion, according to LSEG data.

Despite gains in the competitive server market, Super Micro is losing ground to industry giants such as Dell Technologies (DELL.N) and HP Enterprise (HPE.N), which benefit from larger customer bases. Analyst Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson suggested customers prefer servers from these bigger players amid strong market demand.

Dell raised its annual profit forecast, and HP Enterprise beat second-quarter revenue and profit estimates, underscoring Super Micro’s challenges. CEO Charles Liang noted improved chip availability expected in the fiscal year ahead, following previous delays in Nvidia (NVDA.O) processor supplies that hurt recent quarters.

Super Micro’s shares have surged about 90% this year amid excitement over AI server demand and innovative cooling technologies. However, as Kim Forrest of Bokeh Capital Partners explained, investor enthusiasm for AI-related firms means any softness can trigger sharp sell-offs.

For the quarter ended June 30, Super Micro posted revenue of $5.76 billion, below the $5.89 billion consensus, and adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents, missing estimates of 44 cents due in part to tariff impacts.