Asian markets saw declines on Thursday, with the dollar marginally strengthening as investors evaluated mixed U.S. economic data. Signs of stalled inflation progress and rising geopolitical uncertainties, including reports of explosions in Ukraine, dampened risk sentiment.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index, excluding Japan, fell by 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei index gained 0.48%. European markets, however, showed signs of a positive open, with futures for the Eurostoxx 50, German DAX, and FTSE indices edging higher.
Economic Data and Inflation Concerns
U.S. consumer spending rose slightly more than anticipated in October, yet inflation continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This persistence, compounded by the incoming Trump administration’s tariff proposals, raises concerns about renewed price pressures.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from November indicated divisions among policymakers on future rate cuts. Despite this, market participants are pricing in a 65% likelihood of a rate reduction in December. Economists, including Kristina Clifton from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, anticipate a 25 basis point cut but warn that steady inflation data in November could challenge these expectations.
Macquarie strategists noted that the potential tariff hikes could rekindle inflationary trends, marking a departure from the subdued inflation impact seen during the 2018-2019 tariff era.
Global Currency and Commodities Movements
In currency markets, the South Korean won weakened following an unexpected second consecutive rate cut by the Bank of Korea amid stalling economic growth. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen softened but remained near its one-month high on growing speculation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
The euro declined slightly after European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel emphasized gradual rate cuts to neutral territory, pulling back expectations for deeper reductions. The dollar index edged up 0.11% to 106.23.
Commodities markets were steady. Oil prices held firm as Middle East supply concerns eased following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Brent crude was priced at $72.8 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude remained at $68.7. Gold was flat at $2,634 per ounce but is on track for its largest monthly loss in over a year, with a 4% drop in November.
Outlook
Thin trading volumes are expected with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, but investors remain cautious as inflation data and geopolitical risks continue to influence markets. Tariff uncertainties and central bank policy decisions will remain critical drivers for the global economy in the coming weeks.