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Intel Faces Yield Problems in Key 18A Manufacturing Process for Next PC Chip

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Intel’s ambitious push to regain leadership in high-end chip manufacturing has hit a significant hurdle. According to sources familiar with the matter, its next-generation “18A” production process — critical for the upcoming “Panther Lake” laptop chips — is struggling with low yields, raising concerns about profitability and competitiveness against industry leader TSMC.

The 18A process is central to Intel’s strategy of expanding its in-house chipmaking and building a competitive foundry business. Billions have been invested in factories and technology, aiming to close the gap with TSMC. Panther Lake, expected in high volumes in 2025, features next-gen transistors and a more efficient power delivery system.

However, early tests have shown disappointing results. Only a small fraction of chips have met required standards, with yields reportedly around 5% late last year and about 10% by mid-2024. Intel disputes these figures but has not disclosed official numbers. Industry norms suggest profitability usually requires yields between 70% and 80%. Without major improvements by the planned Q4 launch, Intel may face selling chips at reduced margins or even at a loss.

Intel CFO David Zinsner acknowledged yields “start off low and improve over time” and stressed that the product remains “fully on track.” Still, sources describe the 18A rollout as risky, likening it to a “Hail Mary” due to the simultaneous introduction of multiple untested technologies.

Compounding the challenge, defect rates per chip area are reportedly about three times higher than acceptable for mass production. While Intel is working to improve yields monthly, margins are not yet favorable even at current levels. The company has warned that without securing external business for 14A — the successor to 18A — it could exit advanced manufacturing altogether.

For now, Intel still relies partly on TSMC for some in-house designs. Its follow-up to Panther Lake, “Nova Lake,” is also expected to be produced partly by TSMC.

Intel Faces Setback as Broadcom Chip Manufacturing Tests Fall Short

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Intel’s efforts to revitalize its contract manufacturing business have suffered a blow after tests with chipmaker Broadcom yielded disappointing results, sources revealed. Broadcom had sent silicon wafers through Intel’s cutting-edge 18A manufacturing process, which was intended to demonstrate the viability of the technology. However, after receiving the wafers last month, Broadcom’s engineers concluded that the process was not yet suitable for high-volume production. This setback poses a significant challenge to Intel’s turnaround strategy led by CEO Pat Gelsinger, who launched the contract manufacturing division in 2021 as a cornerstone of the company’s recovery.

Despite the setback, Intel remains optimistic. The company asserted that the 18A process is “healthy and yielding well,” with plans for full-scale production on track for next year. Broadcom, on the other hand, stated that it is still evaluating Intel’s offerings and has yet to make a final decision on a potential partnership.

Intel has been under significant pressure to secure major contracts with customers like Nvidia and Apple, especially as it faces mounting losses in its foundry business, which posted a $7 billion operating loss in the last quarter. The company aims to break even by 2027, but setbacks like the one with Broadcom complicate its path forward.

The foundry business, a critical part of Intel’s $100 billion expansion strategy, is integral to filling capacity at its newly constructed facilities in the U.S. However, Intel’s struggles to achieve viable yields with its advanced processes could hinder its ability to attract customers and compete with established giants like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC).

Broadcom’s decision to test Intel’s 18A technology came amidst the chipmaker’s growing focus on AI hardware, with significant contracts from companies such as Google and Meta. However, concerns about defects on the wafers and the quality of chips produced by Intel’s process have made Broadcom cautious about committing to the new manufacturing technology.

Intel has pledged to be manufacturing-ready by the end of this year for its own chips, with plans to begin high-volume production for external customers in 2025. However, with high stakes and complex challenges ahead, Intel’s ability to turn its foundry business around remains uncertain.