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AMD Warns of $1.5 Billion Revenue Hit from U.S. China Chip Export Curbs, But AI Demand Remains Strong

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) warned on Tuesday that new U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China will cost the company $1.5 billion in revenue for 2025, as Washington intensifies efforts to limit China’s access to advanced technology. Despite the projected hit, AMD’s second-quarter revenue forecast surpassed Wall Street expectations, buoyed by early chip purchases from customers bracing for trade disruptions.

The Biden and Trump administrations have both ramped up controls on exports of high-performance chips to China, citing national security risks related to AI capabilities. These measures now require chipmakers like AMD and Nvidia to obtain export licenses, effectively slowing or blocking shipments of advanced processors.

CEO Lisa Su said most of the export-related impact will be felt in Q2 and Q3, but expressed confidence in broader business strength. “It’s certainly a headwind, but one which we think is well contained,” Su said, noting that AI chip revenue in AMD’s data center segment is expected to grow by “strong double digits” this year.

China represents about 25% of AMD’s total revenue, and the export curbs are expected to shave nearly 5% off 2025 revenue projections, which currently sit at $31.03 billion, per LSEG data.

In Q1, AMD reported:

  • Total revenue of $7.44 billion, up 36% year-over-year, beating the estimate of $7.25 billion

  • Adjusted earnings of 96 cents per share, 2 cents above consensus

  • Data center revenue surged 57% to $3.7 billion, above the $3.62 billion estimate

For Q2, AMD expects revenue of $7.4 billion ± $300 million, also ahead of forecasts. However, the company is still absorbing an $800 million charge due to April’s newly enacted tariffs.

CFO Jean Hu confirmed the $1.5 billion forecasted revenue loss is tied directly to the latest April export controls. Analysts suggest the current surge in orders reflects “pre-buying behavior” from large cloud clients like Microsoft and Meta, who are stockpiling chips ahead of licensing uncertainty.

“Once those safety-stock closets are full, Q3 could feel like the morning after a Red Bull binge,”
warned Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital.

Meanwhile, rivals Marvell Technology and Super Micro both disappointed investors, citing economic uncertainty and reduced AI-related optimism. Their shares fell 4.5% and 5%, respectively, in after-hours trading.

AMD’s solid results highlight its growing role in powering AI infrastructure for hyperscalers, even as trade tensions and tariffs loom over the semiconductor industry.

Marvell Postpones Investor Day, Narrows Revenue Forecast Amid Trade-Driven Economic Uncertainty

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Marvell Technology, a major player in networking and custom AI chips, announced Tuesday it is postponing its upcoming investor day due to what it called a “dynamic macroeconomic environment,” citing ongoing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty. The decision spooked investors, sending Marvell shares down more than 6% in after-hours trading.

The company also narrowed its Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, now expecting approximately $1.875 billion, within a tighter range of ±2%, compared to its prior forecast of ±5%. The midpoint of the outlook remains unchanged.

The announcement comes as semiconductor and computing firms navigate turbulent waters driven by shifting U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump. Although Trump paused a sweeping new import tariff plan for 90 days starting April 9 to allow negotiations, a baseline 10% tariff and additional duties on key partners remain in place, impacting global supply chains and corporate planning.

Marvell’s COO Chris Koopmans previously stated that tariffs had not yet affected the company’s data center segment, but broader concerns linger industry-wide. Nvidia recently warned of a $5.5 billion impact due to U.S. export restrictions on AI chips bound for China, while ASML raised caution over its future sales outlook.

The postponement of Marvell’s investor day suggests the company may be waiting for greater clarity on trade policies and economic stability before providing long-term strategic updates to shareholders.

Huawei Preparing to Ship New AI Chip as China Seeks Alternatives to Nvidia Solutions

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Huawei Technologies is set to begin mass shipments of its new 910C artificial intelligence chip to Chinese customers as early as next month, according to sources familiar with the matter. These shipments come at a crucial time, as China faces increasing challenges in securing domestic alternatives to Nvidia’s AI chips, which have been restricted due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and China. Some shipments of the Huawei 910C have already been made, with many Chinese AI companies eagerly awaiting a local solution to meet their growing demand for high-performance AI hardware.

The timing of the release is significant, as Chinese AI firms have been scrambling to find alternatives to Nvidia’s H20 chip, which had been widely used in AI development. Recently, the U.S. government announced that sales of the H20 to China would now require an export license, placing additional strain on Chinese tech companies that rely heavily on Nvidia’s advanced GPUs for AI research and deployment. With the Huawei 910C, China is looking to reduce its dependency on foreign technology, particularly in the critical area of AI chip development.

The Huawei 910C, which is a graphics processing unit (GPU), represents an evolution of the company’s previous offerings rather than a revolutionary breakthrough. The 910C combines two 910B processors into a single package using advanced integration techniques, delivering performance that rivals Nvidia’s H100 chip. This architectural design allows Huawei to provide a competitive product without entirely reinventing the wheel, making it an appealing alternative for AI applications in China. While the company has yet to publicly confirm the details of the chip’s capabilities or its shipment schedule, the timing aligns with the urgent need for domestic alternatives to Nvidia’s technology.

The geopolitical context behind the 910C’s development is important, as the U.S. has been restricting the sale of its most advanced AI products to China, citing national security concerns. In addition to the H20 chip, China has also been cut off from Nvidia’s flagship B200 chip, further intensifying the need for local solutions. As Huawei ramps up its efforts to ship the 910C, it is positioning itself as a key player in China’s push to maintain technological independence in the face of foreign restrictions.