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Chip Design Software Stocks Surge After US Lifts Export Curbs on China

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Shares of major chip design software companies Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems rose sharply on Thursday following the U.S. government’s decision to lift export restrictions on chip design software exports to China, alleviating market uncertainties and preserving access to a critical revenue source.

Market Impact

  • The restrictions, introduced in late May, had cut off over 10% of revenue for these companies, negatively impacting forecasts and share prices.

  • Analysts from Mizuho noted the export resumption will limit revenue loss to just one month in the current quarter.

  • The easing of trade tensions could facilitate China’s approval of Synopsys’s $35 billion acquisition of engineering software firm Ansys, a deal pending regulatory clearance primarily in China.

Stock Movements

  • Synopsys shares rose 5.5%, despite ongoing assessments of export curbs’ financial impacts.

  • Cadence Design Systems surged 6.1%, reaching a record high of $330.09.

  • Ansys gained around 3.5%, while Germany’s Siemens, another key player in electronic design automation (EDA), rose 1.5%.

Expert Insights and Context

  • Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown described the move as “a distinct warming of relations and a small ceasefire in the chips war.”

  • However, she cautioned that it does not represent a broad easing of restrictions on high-end chip exports, especially from companies like Nvidia.

  • U.S. concerns persist over China’s technological advancements and potential military applications of American chip technology.

  • The curbs have driven increased domestic chip design efforts in China, supported by state subsidies, raising fears of retaliatory actions that could affect regulatory decisions like the Synopsys-Ansys deal.

Deal Deadline

  • The Synopsys-Ansys merger has been cleared in all jurisdictions except China, with a closure deadline of July 15 and an option to extend to January next year.

Chinese Tech Giants Lobby for Offshore Yuan Stablecoin to Challenge U.S. Dollar Dominance

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Chinese technology leaders JD.com and Ant Group are pressing the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to authorize yuan-pegged stablecoins issued in Hong Kong, aiming to boost the international use of the Chinese currency and counter the growing influence of U.S. dollar-linked stablecoins. This push reflects a strategic effort to expand the yuan’s role in global digital finance and cross-border payments amid increasing competition with the U.S.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies. Currently, over 99% of stablecoins are linked to the U.S. dollar, and their blockchain-based technology allows fast, low-cost, and borderless transactions, potentially disrupting traditional financial systems. The global stablecoin market is valued at about $247 billion and is expected to grow to $2 trillion by 2028.

Both JD.com and Ant Group plan to launch stablecoins backed by the Hong Kong dollar following the region’s new legislation effective August 1. However, they argue that yuan-based stablecoins issued offshore—particularly in Hong Kong—are urgently needed to promote the yuan’s internationalization. This would mark a significant policy shift in Beijing’s stance on cryptocurrencies, which were banned domestically in 2021.

Industry voices, such as Wang Yongli of Digital China Information Service Group and former Bank of China official, highlight the strategic risks of the yuan falling behind the dollar in cross-border payments. Currently, the yuan’s share of global payments has dropped to 2.89%, far below the dollar’s dominant 48.46%.

The lobbying coincides with Hong Kong and the U.S. racing to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins. Chinese exporters increasingly use dollar-pegged stablecoins like Tether (USDT) due to capital controls and currency volatility risks at home, fueling demand for alternative payment tools.

While the PBOC has yet to officially respond, advisors and officials acknowledge the challenges posed by the digital currency surge and have hinted that offshore yuan stablecoins are under consideration. Ant Group is preparing to seek stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, with JD.com planning similar applications globally to facilitate foreign exchange and cross-border payments.

JD.com also points out that pegging stablecoins to the Hong Kong dollar—tied to the U.S. dollar—does little to promote the yuan’s use, thus proposing a yuan stablecoin issuance pilot first in Hong Kong, then expanded to China’s free trade zones, a suggestion reportedly well received by regulators.

Baidu Unveils AI Video Generator and Major Search Engine Upgrade

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China’s Baidu (9888.HK) on Wednesday launched MuseSteamer, an AI-powered video generator designed specifically for business users, alongside a significant upgrade to its search engine features. MuseSteamer can produce videos up to 10 seconds long and is offered in three versions: Turbo, Pro, and Lite.

Over the last year, AI leaders like OpenAI and global tech giants have expanded beyond chatbots into text-to-video and image-to-video generation. In China, competitors including ByteDance, Tencent (0700.HK), and Alibaba (9988.HK) have also released similar models. Unlike many rivals such as OpenAI’s Sora that target consumers with subscription plans, Baidu’s MuseSteamer is currently focused solely on business users, with no consumer app available yet.

The search engine overhaul features a redesigned search box supporting longer queries, voice and image searches, and displays more relevant content powered by Baidu’s AI technology.

Baidu faces rising competition as AI chatbots like ByteDance’s Doubao and Tencent’s Yuanbao gain popularity in the Chinese market.