Stablecoins’ Mainstream Rise Could Shake U.S. Treasury Bill Market Amid Regulatory Push
As stablecoins move closer to mainstream acceptance, segments of the U.S. Treasury market, particularly short-term securities like Treasury bills (T-bills), could face increased volatility due to their growing ties with the cryptocurrency world.
Congress is on the verge of passing legislation that would establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins—dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies widely used by traders to shift funds between tokens. Proponents say the new rules will legitimize the sector and encourage more stablecoin activity, which could boost demand for short-term U.S. government debt, considered cash equivalents by many investors.
However, some experts warn that this growing crypto footprint could amplify instability in the T-bill market. Cristiano Ventricelli, senior analyst at Moody’s, cautioned that sudden loss of confidence or regulatory pressure could trigger massive liquidations by stablecoin issuers, potentially depressing Treasury prices and disrupting fixed-income markets. A problem in stablecoins could spill over into broader financial markets, affecting institutions relying on stablecoin liquidity.
If enacted, the legislation would require stablecoins to be backed by liquid assets like U.S. dollars and short-term Treasury bills, along with monthly transparency disclosures on reserve composition. This would likely compel stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle to buy more Treasury bills to back their tokens. Currently, these two companies hold approximately $166 billion in U.S. Treasuries.
The stablecoin market, currently around $247 billion, could balloon to $2 trillion by 2028 if the legislation passes, according to Standard Chartered. The Treasury market itself has about $29 trillion in securities outstanding, with $6 trillion in T-bills.
JP Morgan analysts estimate stablecoin issuers could become the third-largest buyers of Treasury bills in the near future, raising concerns about tighter links between crypto and traditional finance. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee warned that growth in stablecoins might reduce banks’ demand for Treasuries and impact credit growth.
Experts also caution about potential liquidity risks. If stablecoin issuers are forced to sell Treasuries rapidly, it could cause price drops and credit crunches in money markets, which invest heavily in short-term debt.
While past stablecoin issues—like Tether’s brief loss of its dollar peg in 2022 or Circle’s 2023 peg break tied to Silicon Valley Bank’s failure—did not cause systemic market disruptions, the scale of risk could rise with wider adoption driven by federal regulation.
On the positive side, some see the legislation as a market stimulant. Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management argues that codifying stablecoins will expand the global dollar footprint, strengthening the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. Roger Hallam of Vanguard suggests increased demand for short-term Treasuries could encourage the U.S. Treasury to issue more T-bills instead of long-term debt, easing market tensions and balancing fiscal funding needs.
