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Palantir Shares Tumble Over 13% Despite Revenue Beat and Upgraded Forecast

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR.O) saw its stock plunge more than 13% on Tuesday, as investors reacted negatively to quarterly results and a raised full-year forecast that fell short of Wall Street’s elevated expectations. This comes after the stock had soared 63% year-to-date, following a quadruple gain in 2023, driven by optimism around its AI capabilities and government contracts.

The Denver-based data analytics firm reported first-quarter revenue of $883.9 million, a 39% year-over-year increase, and above analyst expectations of $862.8 million, according to LSEG. U.S. government revenue surged 45%, highlighting continued momentum in federal and defense sectors.

Despite the beat, analysts say the market had already priced in strong performance, leaving little room for upside. “We believe we have reached a point where respectable earnings beats and raised guidance aren’t enough to materially move the stock to the upside,” said Morningstar analyst Mark Giarelli.

Palantir now forecasts 2024 revenue between $3.89 billion and $3.90 billion, up from the prior estimate of $3.74 billion to $3.76 billion. The company also noted a record number of $1 million+ deals, with strong customer growth in U.S. commercial sectors such as healthcare, energy, and automotive.

However, valuation concerns are mounting. Palantir’s 12-month forward P/E ratio stands at 202.07, significantly higher than that of industry peers like Snowflake (131), Datadog (54.81), and Salesforce (23.48). If the stock decline holds, the company is poised to shed over $40 billion from its $292 billion market cap.

Despite the sell-off, at least nine brokerages raised their price targets for Palantir post-earnings, pushing the median target to $96.46 — a sign of continued long-term confidence in the firm’s AI-driven growth.

Palantir Shares Surge on Strong AI-Driven Revenue Outlook

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Palantir’s shares soared more than 18% in premarket trading, following a forecast of upbeat annual revenue driven by the growing demand for its data analytics services, particularly from businesses eager to adopt generative AI technologies. The company’s market capitalization is set to increase by about $35 billion, based on current share prices of $99.31.

The firm’s platform, AIP, has seen strong growth as businesses accelerate investments in AI, utilizing the platform to test, debug, and evaluate AI scenarios. Russ Mould, an Investment Director at AJ Bell, remarked that Palantir is capitalizing on the AI wave, with industries making substantial technological investments.

Palantir’s co-founder Peter Thiel’s company is now viewed as a major player in the AI sector. Matt Britzman, Senior Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, compared Palantir’s AI success to Michael Jordan’s dominance in basketball, describing the company as a leader delivering game-winning results.

Palantir’s Chief Revenue Officer, Ryan Taylor, reiterated that the company would discourage commercial clients from using DeepSeek’s AI models but would continue to work with those who opt for them. U.S. officials are currently reviewing the national security implications of DeepSeek, with concerns raised by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

Additionally, Taylor noted that new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump could further boost demand for Palantir’s analytics services, especially in supply chain and logistics management.

Following the announcement, at least nine analysts raised their price targets for Palantir, with Morgan Stanley upgrading its rating from ‘underweight’ to ‘equalweight,’ recognizing Palantir as a significant player in the AI space.