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Analysts weigh in on Trump–Xi call over trade and TikTok

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A phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday eased tensions but left major issues unresolved, particularly the fate of TikTok and broader trade negotiations. Analysts say the call highlighted China’s confidence in playing the long game, while the U.S. appeared eager to keep talks alive.

Scott Kennedy (CSIS) noted that neither side announced a firm deal, suggesting negotiations are ongoing or that leaders are holding back until more comprehensive progress is made. He argued China feels “relatively unthreatened” and that the talks are unfolding on Xi’s terms.

Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund) observed Trump’s readout was more explicit about TikTok, while Xi avoided Taiwan—perhaps reassured by recent U.S. decisions to delay arms sales and downgrade Taiwan-related engagements.

Craig Singleton (FDD) warned that China may be using summit diplomacy to stall U.S. competitive measures while extracting concessions. He said Beijing is trading symbolic gestures, like fentanyl actions, for relief on tariffs and tech controls, with Washington “hungry for a summit” more than China.

William Yang (ICG) emphasized that Beijing wants U.S. export controls lifted, particularly on advanced chips, before committing to bigger trade deliverables. He said China is betting Trump’s desire for a deal will push him toward concessions, while holding leverage in rare earth supply chains.

Danny Russel (Asia Society) downplayed the outcomes, calling the TikTok reference the only semi-concrete result, while noting the deferral of Trump’s China visit shows how slowly negotiations are moving.

Patrick Cronin (Hudson Institute) framed the call as a temporary easing of rivalry, giving both leaders economic “breathing space” while masking deeper great-power competition beneath the surface.

Ali Wyne (ICG) highlighted the prospect of three in-person meetings—at APEC in South Korea, a Trump trip to China next year, and an eventual Xi visit to the U.S.—calling the sustained engagement welcome, even if no breakthrough on TikTok emerged.

Overall, analysts see Beijing as confident, patient, and willing to leverage time and resources, while Washington seeks symbolic wins to show progress, leaving the TikTok deal and trade negotiations hanging in limbo.

U.S. Secretly Embeds Trackers in AI Chip Shipments to Detect Diversions to China

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U.S. authorities have placed hidden location trackers in select shipments of advanced AI chips to monitor potential illegal diversions to China. The tactic, previously unreported, targets high-risk shipments and aims to enforce export restrictions on companies like Nvidia, AMD, Dell, and Super Micro. Trackers are embedded in packaging and sometimes inside the servers themselves, enabling investigators to track products and build cases against violators. The Department of Commerce, FBI, and Homeland Security Investigations may all be involved. While U.S. officials see it as a law enforcement tool, Chinese authorities have criticized such measures as attempts to control technology access.

Trump’s Nvidia Deal Sparks Corporate and National Security Concerns

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U.S. President Donald Trump has created a highly unusual precedent by allowing Nvidia (NVDA.O) and AMD (AMD.O) to resume AI chip exports to China in exchange for a 15% revenue cut to the U.S. government, raising questions about corporate risk and national security.

KEY DETAILS

  • Historically, U.S. export controls on sensitive technologies were non-negotiable, meaning companies could not circumvent restrictions through payments.

  • Trump’s move reverses a prior ban on H20 chips and suggests a potential future sale of scaled-down Blackwell chips to China.

  • The administration claims the national security risks are minimal, noting the H20 is Nvidia’s “fourth-best chip” and widely available in China.

REACTIONS FROM LAWMAKERS AND EXPERTS

  • Bipartisan U.S. lawmakers expressed concern about creating a “pay-for-play” framework for sensitive technology exports.

    • Rep. John Moolenaar: “Export controls are a frontline defense in protecting our national security.”

    • Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi: “Putting a price on our security concerns signals that national security principles are negotiable.”

  • Legal experts question the arrangement’s legality, debating whether it constitutes an export tax, which the U.S. Constitution prohibits.

  • Analysts warn it could pressure chipmakers’ margins and create a precedent for taxing strategic U.S. exports to China.

CORPORATE IMPLICATIONS

  • Nvidia confirmed compliance with U.S. export rules but did not detail the revenue-sharing mechanism.

  • AMD noted approval for chip exports but also did not clarify financial terms.

  • Analysts predict the 15% remittance could reduce margins for China-bound processors by 5–15 percentage points, impacting overall profitability.

CONCLUSION
Trump’s intervention marks a rare case of direct government influence on corporate exports, blending national security policy with financial leverage. Observers warn it could reshape how U.S. companies approach sales of sensitive technology in global markets.