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Trump Administration Weighs Stricter Curbs on Nvidia’s China Sales

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The Trump administration is reportedly considering tightening restrictions on Nvidia’s sales of its H20 chips to China, according to sources familiar with the matter. These chips, designed to run artificial intelligence (AI) software, were developed to comply with existing U.S. restrictions on shipments to China, which were initially put in place during the Biden administration. The discussions, still in their early stages, have been ongoing for more than six months, with some elements of the conversation stemming from the previous administration’s stance on technology exports to China.

The potential move to limit Nvidia’s sales of these chips comes amid growing concerns about China’s progress in AI development. China’s recent launch of DeepSeek, an AI assistant that reportedly uses less data and costs significantly less than existing models, has raised alarms that China may be closing the gap on the U.S. in AI technology.

Nvidia has stated that it is “ready to work with the administration as it pursues its own approach to AI.” Following the news, Nvidia’s stock, which was already in decline, saw slight additional losses. The White House has not yet commented on the matter.

While the Biden administration previously enacted a broad set of restrictions barring AI chip exports to China and limiting shipments to other countries, certain AI chips like Nvidia’s H20 remain permissible for export. The potential tightening of these regulations underscores growing tensions over the global AI race and the strategic importance of controlling the flow of advanced technology.

 

U.S. Tightens Semiconductor Restrictions to Prevent China’s Access to Advanced Chips

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The U.S. Department of Commerce has implemented stronger restrictions on the export of advanced computing semiconductors, aimed at curbing the diversion of high-end chips to China. The new regulations impose broader licensing requirements on chip manufacturers and packaging companies seeking to export specific advanced chips. These measures are designed to limit China’s access to crucial chips used in military applications and advanced technology sectors.

The restrictions build on previous efforts by the U.S. to prevent China from acquiring semiconductors critical to maintaining a military advantage. By controlling the flow of these high-end chips, the U.S. seeks to mitigate potential security risks posed by China’s growing technological and military capabilities.

 

Nvidia Shifts Focus to New Advanced Packaging Technology

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Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that while the company’s demand for advanced packaging from TSMC remains robust, the specific type of technology required is evolving. At an event in Taichung, Taiwan, Huang explained that Nvidia is transitioning its focus from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L for its upcoming Blackwell AI chips. This shift, however, does not signal a reduction in capacity, but rather an increase in the use of CoWoS-L, a newer, more advanced version of TSMC’s chip packaging technology.

Nvidia had previously relied heavily on CoWoS-S for its AI chips, including the Hopper platform. As the company moves into Blackwell, which was unveiled in March 2024, it plans to transition existing CoWoS-S capacity to CoWoS-L. This change will impact TSMC’s supply chain but is seen as a step forward in Nvidia’s push to meet the growing demand for its AI chips.

Huang also noted that while packaging capacity for these advanced chips had previously been a bottleneck, it had expanded significantly in recent years, with available capacity now approximately four times greater than it was two years ago. Despite the increased demand, Nvidia has not been cutting orders but is instead increasing its reliance on CoWoS-L, which is expected to better meet the needs of Blackwell’s design.

The move to CoWoS-L technology and changes in Nvidia’s order patterns have sparked speculation about the potential impact on TSMC’s revenue, particularly with analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo noting the shift in Nvidia’s focus. Huang declined to comment on recent U.S. export restrictions that limit AI chip sales to countries outside a select group of U.S. allies, but the company’s strategies continue to evolve in response to market demands and geopolitical factors.