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Goldman Sachs Predicts Crude Oil Spike Amid Potential Iran-Israel Conflict

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Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could rise by as much as $20 per barrel if Iranian oil production is hit due to Israeli retaliation for Iran’s recent missile attack. Oil prices are already on the rise, with U.S. crude futures climbing by 5% on Thursday and continuing to increase on Friday. The market is reacting to fears of disruptions to Iran’s significant oil output amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.

Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities research, estimated that a sustained reduction of 1 million barrels per day in Iranian production could push oil prices up by about $20 per barrel next year, assuming that OPEC+ does not increase production to compensate. If major OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and UAE step in to offset the shortfall, the price rise could be closer to $10 per barrel.

Since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October 2023, the oil market had remained stable due to increased U.S. production and low demand from China. However, the recent missile attacks by Iran have reignited concerns about supply disruptions. Iran produces about 4 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for roughly 4% of global supply, making it a key player in the global oil market.

Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, raised the possibility that Kharg Island, responsible for 90% of Iran’s crude exports, could become a target for Israeli strikes. This would significantly impact Iran’s ability to export oil, adding further pressure to the global market.

Another major concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel through which nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil production flows. Any conflict that disrupts transit through this region could lead to even more dramatic spikes in oil prices.

Fitch Solutions issued a note stating that in the event of a full-scale war, Brent crude could rise above $100 per barrel, and any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices to $150 per barrel or higher. While the probability of a full-scale war is seen as relatively low, the risk of miscalculation or escalation is now elevated.

Although some analysts believe that OPEC+ has enough spare capacity to cover any shortfall in Iranian oil, most of this capacity is concentrated in the Middle East, which could itself be drawn into a broader conflict if tensions worsen.

 

Israel Strikes Central Beirut, Killing Six Amid Escalating Conflict with Hezbollah

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Early on Thursday, Israeli airstrikes targeted central Beirut, killing at least six people, as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah reached new heights. The strike hit a building in the Bachoura district, close to Lebanon’s parliament, marking the closest Israeli attack to central Beirut in the ongoing conflict. Lebanese health officials confirmed the casualties, and additional reports suggested multiple injuries from the attack.

Israel’s military said the airstrike was a precise operation against Hezbollah-related targets, following the loss of eight Israeli soldiers in ground combat in southern Lebanon. In response, Hezbollah has engaged Israeli forces near the border, destroying three Israeli tanks. This marked the first major ground confrontation since Israeli troops entered Lebanon earlier in the week.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued issuing evacuation orders for Lebanese villages near the border, as Israeli air raids on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh also resumed. Three missiles targeted the area where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed last week.

The conflict is drawing increasing international concern. U.S. President Joe Biden urged Israel to respond proportionally, despite Iran’s massive missile strike on Israel earlier this week, which Israel said involved over 180 missiles. G7 leaders and China have called for diplomacy, urging the United Nations Security Council to intervene to de-escalate the situation. Meanwhile, Western nations are preparing contingency evacuation plans for citizens in Lebanon as the violence intensifies.

The death toll from almost a year of cross-border clashes has surpassed 1,900, with over 9,000 wounded, according to Lebanese officials. The conflict has displaced around 1.2 million people within Lebanon.

 

Iran Claims Attack on Israel Concluded as Fears of Wider Conflict Grow

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Iran has announced that its recent assault on Israel is over, following a series of missile strikes targeting Israeli military facilities. This attack, described by Iranian officials as a response to Israeli actions against Hezbollah and other militant leaders, reportedly involved more than 180 ballistic missiles aimed at three Israeli military bases. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that any further Israeli provocations would lead to a stronger Iranian response.

The situation remains tense, as Israeli officials have vowed to retaliate significantly in the coming days, potentially targeting Iranian oil production facilities and other strategic sites. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran would face consequences for what he termed a “big mistake.”

Despite calls for a ceasefire from the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continue. Israel has resumed airstrikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburbs, conducting at least a dozen bombings while issuing evacuation orders for the area. Large plumes of smoke were visible as Israeli forces targeted locations believed to house Hezbollah assets. In retaliation, Hezbollah claimed to have confronted Israeli forces attempting to infiltrate the Lebanese town of Adaisseh.

The escalation of violence follows weeks of conflict, including Israel’s recent ground operations in Lebanon and ongoing hostilities in the Gaza Strip. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that the U.S. was prepared to defend its interests in the region and that American naval forces had intercepted some of the missiles fired from Iran. The Pentagon noted that Iran’s missile assault was significantly larger than previous attacks, including an earlier strike in April.

Israeli military officials stated that most of the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted by Israeli air defenses and a coalition led by the United States. However, the use of hypersonic Fattah missiles by Iranian forces marked a dangerous escalation, with reports indicating that 90% of the missiles successfully hit their targets in Israel.

As fears mount that Iran and the U.S. could become embroiled in a broader regional conflict, President Joe Biden reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel, labeling the Iranian attack as “ineffective.” Vice President Kamala Harris echoed this sentiment, stating that the U.S. would not hesitate to act against Iran if necessary. Israel’s U.N. Ambassador, Danny Danon, promised a painful response to Iran’s actions.

In response to the ongoing situation, French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Iran’s attacks and announced the mobilization of French military resources in the Middle East. The United Nations Security Council convened to discuss the escalating conflict, while the European Union urged an immediate ceasefire. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol convened national security advisors to address potential impacts on energy supply due to the conflict.

The humanitarian toll has been severe, with nearly 1,900 casualties and over 9,000 injuries reported in Lebanon in the past year of conflict, most of which have occurred in the last two weeks.