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Workday Shares Drop as Lukewarm Subscription Forecast Signals Caution in Tech Budgets

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Workday Inc. saw its shares fall by 5% in extended trading Thursday after forecasting second-quarter subscription revenue that merely met Wall Street expectations, signaling caution amid weakened client spending and ongoing economic uncertainty in the enterprise software market.

The California-based human capital and financial management software provider projected Q2 subscription revenue of $2.16 billion, aligning with analysts’ consensus but doing little to boost investor confidence. The company also reiterated its full-year guidance of $8.8 billion in subscription revenue for fiscal 2026.

“We remain focused on executing in this uncertain environment,” said CFO Zane Rowe.

Despite this cautious outlook, Workday reported solid Q1 results:

  • Total revenue: $2.24 billion (vs. $2.22 billion expected)

  • Subscription revenue: $2.06 billion (slightly above $2.05 billion consensus)

  • Adjusted EPS: $2.23 per share (beating $2.01 estimate)

In tandem with its earnings release, the company announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program, a move often intended to reassure investors amid stock volatility.

Competitive Landscape and Federal Setback

Workday competes against enterprise giants like Oracle and SAP, both of which boast larger back-office software businesses. Analysts note that increased competition in the HR and finance software market may pressure pricing and margins in the coming quarters.

Adding to its recent headwinds, Workday was stripped of a federal HR platform contract earlier this month by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management. The decision followed criticism that the award process did not seek competitive bids. The canceled contract had been connected to efforts from within the Elon Musk-backed campaign to restructure federal workforce management, which could further dampen Workday’s growth in the public sector.

Analyst Outlook

While the company continues to grow and outperform near-term expectations, its muted forecast reflects broader macroeconomic concerns and signals that even resilient SaaS firms are not immune to tightening tech budgets. Analysts expect Workday to maintain its position among top enterprise software providers but caution that client spending softness and lost contracts may limit upside in the short term.

European Investors Demand AI Results by 2025 or Risk Losing Patience

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European investors, while optimistic about the potential of generative AI to boost productivity and profits, are growing impatient with companies that have yet to show tangible returns on their significant investments in the technology. Many are becoming more selective, shifting focus from hardware suppliers to firms that are adopting AI solutions, such as RELX and SAP. However, the pressure is mounting for these adopters to demonstrate clear financial gains from their AI investments by next year.

The AI Boom and Shifting Investor Preferences

AI-exposed stocks, which had enjoyed a surge of interest, have been under pressure recently, particularly due to fears of a recession and the rise of low-cost Chinese AI models, such as DeepSeek. Despite the broader market challenges, Nvidia, a key player in the AI space, has seen a 29% increase in its stock price year-over-year, even amid the rollout of DeepSeek, which reduces reliance on expensive chips like Nvidia’s.

In Europe, the trend is evident as investors move away from hardware makers, with stocks like ASM International and BE Semiconductor down 25% and 20%, respectively, since the January sell-off. On the other hand, companies adopting AI, such as LSEG and SAP, have shown more resilience, with only modest declines in their stock prices.

Investor Patience Running Thin

Despite the growing interest in AI, an internal survey by Fidelity in January revealed that 72% of analysts did not expect AI to significantly impact the profitability of the companies they cover by 2025. Many European portfolio managers are adopting a shorter timeframe, warning that companies need to start delivering visible results by 2026 to justify their AI investments.

Steve Wreford, lead portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management, emphasized that investors will be more forgiving of AI adopters in 2025, when many companies are still in the beta testing phase. However, by 2026, these companies must show a significant impact on their revenues, or investors will begin to lose patience.

The Risk of Overhyped Expectations

The current high valuations of AI-exposed stocks, including SAP and LSEG, which trade at significantly higher price-to-earnings multiples compared to the broader market, only add to the pressure. Analysts like Bernie Ahkong of UBS O’Connor warn that investors will begin questioning these premiums if substantial returns are not seen by the end of 2025.

One of the key concerns in AI investments, as noted by Paddy Flood of Schroders, is whether viable, profitable use cases for AI will emerge. To sustain investment in the sector, concrete applications of AI must be developed—whether in the form of a single “killer” use case or multiple impactful ones. Fabio di Giansante of Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, echoed this sentiment, stressing that AI companies need to demonstrate real benefits in terms of top-line growth and margin improvement.

Looking Ahead

With AI stocks trading at premium valuations, 2025 could be a pivotal year. If companies fail to show a tangible impact from their AI investments, it could prompt a reassessment of their valuations. As the market waits for concrete results, the pressure is on AI adopters to deliver on the high expectations that have been set.

SAP Overtakes Novo Nordisk as Europe’s Largest Company by Market Capitalization

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German software giant SAP has surpassed Danish healthcare company Novo Nordisk as Europe’s largest company by market capitalization. As of 0900 GMT on Monday, SAP’s market cap stood at $340 billion, edging out Novo Nordisk, according to Reuters’ calculations using LSEG Workspace data.

SAP, Europe’s leading software maker, specializes in business application software, serving various industries in functions like finance, sales, and supply chain management. Its growth is largely attributed to optimism surrounding its cloud business, with expectations that it will benefit significantly from recent investments in generative artificial intelligence. Despite a 7% increase in SAP’s stock price in 2025, which lags behind the broader European STOXX 600 index’s 8.3% rise year-to-date, the company has posted a remarkable 160% total return since the end of 2022, far outpacing the STOXX 600’s 28% performance.

In contrast, Novo Nordisk has seen recent underperformance, especially after disappointing trial results from its experimental obesity drug, Cagrisema. The healthcare company had previously surpassed luxury goods giant LVMH in September 2023 to become Europe’s largest company but has since struggled to maintain that lead.