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U.S. Tightens Semiconductor Restrictions to Prevent China’s Access to Advanced Chips

The U.S. Department of Commerce has implemented stronger restrictions on the export of advanced computing semiconductors, aimed at curbing the diversion of high-end chips to China. The new regulations impose broader licensing requirements on chip manufacturers and packaging companies seeking to export specific advanced chips. These measures are designed to limit China’s access to crucial chips used in military applications and advanced technology sectors.

The restrictions build on previous efforts by the U.S. to prevent China from acquiring semiconductors critical to maintaining a military advantage. By controlling the flow of these high-end chips, the U.S. seeks to mitigate potential security risks posed by China’s growing technological and military capabilities.

 

TSMC Reports Record Quarterly Profit, Expects Strong Growth in Early 2025

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) has posted a record-breaking quarterly profit, reporting a 57% increase in net income to T$374.68 billion ($11.4 billion) for the quarter ending Dec. 31. This surge in profit aligns with the company’s bullish outlook for the future, as revenue jumped by 39% compared to the same period last year. TSMC has forecasted continued strong performance, with a revenue growth estimate of about 37% for the first quarter of 2025, projecting earnings between $25-25.8 billion. For the full year, TSMC expects revenue growth to be between 20% and 30%, driven largely by the demand for chips used in artificial intelligence (AI) processing.

While TSMC’s business is thriving, it faces challenges stemming from U.S. government restrictions on AI chip exports to China. The Biden administration recently announced further curbs on these exports, which could affect demand from clients. However, TSMC’s CEO, C.C. Wei, expressed confidence that the company could manage these restrictions, stating that they are currently applying for special permits for affected clients and anticipating approval. He also emphasized the company’s strong communication with both the current and incoming U.S. administrations.

TSMC’s growth is also supported by its ambitious expansion plans, including new fabs in the United States, Japan, Germany, and Taiwan. For 2025, TSMC has set its capital spending target between $38 billion and $42 billion, marking a potential 41% increase. The AI-driven boom has significantly boosted TSMC’s stock price, which surged 81% in 2024, outperforming the broader market’s 28.5% growth.

 

Nvidia Shifts Focus to New Advanced Packaging Technology

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that while the company’s demand for advanced packaging from TSMC remains robust, the specific type of technology required is evolving. At an event in Taichung, Taiwan, Huang explained that Nvidia is transitioning its focus from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L for its upcoming Blackwell AI chips. This shift, however, does not signal a reduction in capacity, but rather an increase in the use of CoWoS-L, a newer, more advanced version of TSMC’s chip packaging technology.

Nvidia had previously relied heavily on CoWoS-S for its AI chips, including the Hopper platform. As the company moves into Blackwell, which was unveiled in March 2024, it plans to transition existing CoWoS-S capacity to CoWoS-L. This change will impact TSMC’s supply chain but is seen as a step forward in Nvidia’s push to meet the growing demand for its AI chips.

Huang also noted that while packaging capacity for these advanced chips had previously been a bottleneck, it had expanded significantly in recent years, with available capacity now approximately four times greater than it was two years ago. Despite the increased demand, Nvidia has not been cutting orders but is instead increasing its reliance on CoWoS-L, which is expected to better meet the needs of Blackwell’s design.

The move to CoWoS-L technology and changes in Nvidia’s order patterns have sparked speculation about the potential impact on TSMC’s revenue, particularly with analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo noting the shift in Nvidia’s focus. Huang declined to comment on recent U.S. export restrictions that limit AI chip sales to countries outside a select group of U.S. allies, but the company’s strategies continue to evolve in response to market demands and geopolitical factors.