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Bitcoin Rebounds from Worst Week in Over a Year, Surges Above $57,000

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Bitcoin jumped back above $57,000 on Monday evening, recovering from its worst week in over a year. The cryptocurrency surged by 5.6%, reaching $57,444, according to Coin Metrics. This follows a 9% decline the previous week, marking its worst performance since August 2023.

Stocks linked to cryptocurrency, such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy, also saw gains of 5.2% and 9.2%, respectively, as the broader market recovered. The S&P 500 snapped a four-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed more than 1%, after suffering their worst weekly performance of 2024.

Bitcoin has remained in a relatively tight trading range throughout the year. Last week, it briefly dipped below the $55,000 mark, a significant floor for the digital currency. Analysts have noted the absence of strong catalysts for Bitcoin, making its price vulnerable to broader macroeconomic factors.

Seasonal trends have also played a role, as September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Analysts at Bitfinex noted that stability in the U.S. equity markets could help Bitcoin recover further by reducing crypto ETF outflows, which have been exerting selling pressure on the cryptocurrency.

 

Dell and Palantir to Join S&P 500; Shares Surge

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Dell and Palantir both saw their shares jump about 7% in after-hours trading on Friday following the announcement from S&P Global that they will be added to the S&P 500 index. Palantir will replace American Airlines, while Dell will take the place of Etsy in the benchmark index.

This move marks Dell’s return to the S&P 500, having been a member from 1996 to 2013 before going private and rejoining the public market in 2018. For Palantir, which went public in 2020 after over 15 years as a venture-backed startup, this inclusion highlights its recent profitability and growing revenue. The company reported a net income of $135.6 million for the second quarter, a significant increase from the previous year.

The inclusion of these companies reflects their high market capitalizations—Palantir’s exceeds $67 billion, while Dell’s is over $72 billion—matching the median market cap of S&P 500 companies at approximately $33.5 billion. The addition often leads to a rally in stock prices as index-tracking funds adjust their portfolios to include the new members.

Dell’s stock had already surged 90% in 2023, driven by strong demand for AI servers. Meanwhile, Palantir, known for its data analytics and work with government and military agencies, has seen accelerated revenue growth and posted its first profits in late 2022.

The S&P 500 additions are intended to better represent U.S. stocks with high market caps. The inclusion of these companies follows recent changes, such as the addition of cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike in June. Shares of software maker Workday fell 2% in after-hours trading, despite earlier speculation about its potential inclusion in the index.

Nvidia’s Earnings Could Trigger Unprecedented $300 Billion Swing in Shares, Options Indicate

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Traders in the U.S. equity options market are bracing for an extraordinary move in Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock following its upcoming earnings report, with expectations pointing to a potential $300 billion swing in market value. The anticipated volatility reflects a projected 9.8% shift in Nvidia’s share price, based on options pricing data from ORATS. This forecast exceeds the expected move for any Nvidia earnings report over the past three years and significantly surpasses the stock’s historical average post-earnings fluctuation of 8.1%.

With Nvidia’s current market capitalization at approximately $3.11 trillion, a 9.8% change equates to roughly $305 billion. This potential swing is set to be the largest expected earnings move ever recorded for a publicly traded company, dwarfing the market caps of about 95% of the S&P 500 companies, including Netflix and Merck.

Nvidia, renowned for its leading role in artificial intelligence (AI) chip manufacturing, has become a pivotal player in the broader market. The company’s stock has surged around 150% year-to-date, contributing significantly to the S&P 500’s 18% gain for the same period. “It’s the Atlas holding up the market,” noted Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, highlighting Nvidia’s influence on overall market profitability.

Options data reveals a greater focus on potential upside rather than downside risks, with traders assigning a 7% probability to a rise of more than 20% and only a 4% chance to a drop exceeding 20%. This asymmetry underscores a prevailing “fear of missing out” (FOMO) among investors, who are keen to capitalize on any potential rally.

The heightened expectations are also attributed to Nvidia’s historical volatility. The company’s average 30-day historical volatility this year is about twice that of other companies with market caps above $1 trillion. This reflects both the stock’s erratic past performance and its status as a highly followed asset among institutional and retail investors.

Christopher Jacobson of Susquehanna Financial Group noted that the options pricing mirrors Nvidia’s actual stock movements, driven by ongoing uncertainty and optimism surrounding the AI sector. As Nvidia continues to shape the future of AI and cloud computing, its earnings report is poised to make a monumental impact on its market value and broader investor sentiment.