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Super Micro’s Quarterly Results Disappoint, Shares Drop Nearly 15.5%

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Super Micro (SMCI.O) missed Wall Street estimates for its fourth-quarter revenue and profit, as the company faces stiff competition from larger server manufacturers in the AI-driven high-performance computing market. Shares plunged about 15.5% in extended trading following the earnings release and multiple downward revisions to its full-year guidance.

The company now forecasts at least $33 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026, falling short of its earlier target of around $40 billion set in February. Analyst expectations averaged $29.94 billion, according to LSEG data.

Despite gains in the competitive server market, Super Micro is losing ground to industry giants such as Dell Technologies (DELL.N) and HP Enterprise (HPE.N), which benefit from larger customer bases. Analyst Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson suggested customers prefer servers from these bigger players amid strong market demand.

Dell raised its annual profit forecast, and HP Enterprise beat second-quarter revenue and profit estimates, underscoring Super Micro’s challenges. CEO Charles Liang noted improved chip availability expected in the fiscal year ahead, following previous delays in Nvidia (NVDA.O) processor supplies that hurt recent quarters.

Super Micro’s shares have surged about 90% this year amid excitement over AI server demand and innovative cooling technologies. However, as Kim Forrest of Bokeh Capital Partners explained, investor enthusiasm for AI-related firms means any softness can trigger sharp sell-offs.

For the quarter ended June 30, Super Micro posted revenue of $5.76 billion, below the $5.89 billion consensus, and adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents, missing estimates of 44 cents due in part to tariff impacts.

Super Micro Shares Fall After Forecasting Q4 Revenue Below Estimates Amid Tariff, Spending Concerns

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O), a leading AI server manufacturer, projected fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations, causing its shares to drop 5.4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. The company cited economic uncertainty, tariffs, and delayed customer spending as near-term headwinds.

The San Jose-based firm forecast Q4 revenue between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, falling short of analysts’ average estimate of $6.82 billion, according to LSEG data. The company has benefited from surging demand for AI data center infrastructure, leveraging chips from Nvidia, AMD, and others, but has also faced accounting issues in recent months that sparked delisting concerns on the Nasdaq.

Despite some clients delaying purchases, Super Micro expects those deferred deals to materialize in the June–September quarter. However, investor sentiment remains cautious, particularly in light of growing concerns about AI investment slowdowns and tariff-related impacts.

Kim Caughey Forrest of Bokeh Capital Partners suggested the lowered guidance might be self-inflicted, rather than purely market-driven, while D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria noted the possibility that Super Micro may be losing market share to competitors like Dell, rather than signaling a broader downturn in AI infrastructure demand.

For fiscal year 2025, Super Micro revised its revenue forecast downward to $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, from a previously expected $23.5 billion to $25.0 billion.

The company had released preliminary results last week, but the lower guidance and uncertain macroeconomic environment continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Singapore Prosecutors Link $390 Million Fraud Case to U.S. Server Supply

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In a significant fraud case involving Singapore-based firms, prosecutors revealed that $390 million worth of transactions are at the center of allegations that the companies falsely supplied U.S. servers to Malaysia. Three individuals have been charged with defrauding Dell and Super Micro by misrepresenting the final destination of the servers, which may have contained sensitive components such as Nvidia’s artificial intelligence (AI) chips.

The case has raised concerns due to potential links to DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm under investigation by the United States for possibly utilizing banned Nvidia chips. The chips in question, if used by DeepSeek, could be the high-end semiconductors restricted by U.S. export controls. Although Singapore authorities have acknowledged the servers might have contained Nvidia chips, they have not confirmed if the chips were subject to U.S. export restrictions.

The three suspects—Aaron Woon (41), Alan Wei (49), and Li Ming (51)—are facing charges of fraudulent misrepresentation. Prosecutors also allege that Wei paid himself dividends totaling millions of dollars, while Woon reportedly received a substantial bonus. The case forms part of a broader investigation in Singapore into false representation, with 22 individuals and companies under suspicion and six others arrested in connection with the matter.

At this stage, Singapore authorities have not offered further details on whether the chips involved were high-end models, nor have they commented extensively on the potential connection to DeepSeek. Singapore’s Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam declined to speculate on the link between the two cases.

In response to the charges, Shashi Nathan, Wei’s lawyer, has requested proof from the prosecutors regarding the alleged fraudulent transactions. Lawyers for Li and Woon have not made public comments yet. Malaysia is also conducting its own investigation into whether its laws were violated in the case.