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Yellen Confident in U.S. Economy, Sees Path to ‘Soft Landing’ Without Major Layoffs

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reassured the public on Saturday that the U.S. economy remains robust, despite recent weak job reports that have unsettled investors and led to stock market declines. Speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Yellen acknowledged a slowdown in job growth compared to the post-pandemic hiring frenzy but emphasized that the economy is “deep into a recovery” and “operating at full employment.” She noted that while job openings have decreased, significant layoffs have not materialized, indicating economic stability. Yellen also pointed to the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce inflation without triggering a recession, describing the current situation as a “soft landing.” Her comments followed the release of nonfarm payroll data for August, which showed lower-than-expected job growth but a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. The Treasury Secretary remained optimistic about the economy’s trajectory, downplaying fears of an imminent recession.

 

Retail Investors Stay Resilient Amid Market Turmoil, Research Shows

Despite the recent volatility in U.S. stock markets, retail investors have remained active buyers, taking advantage of sharp declines in popular technology stocks, according to several research reports. While Monday’s global sell-off, driven by anxiety over economic data and the unwinding of yen-funded trades, saw major indexes plummet by 2.6% to 3.4%, individual investors largely continued their dip-buying strategy.

Vanda Research, a New York-based market analysis firm, reported that retail investors remained net buyers during the market downturn, particularly favoring shares of tech giants like Nvidia, Intel, and Advanced Micro Devices. Additionally, they increased their investments in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks 20-year Treasury bonds, signaling a blend of cautious optimism and a search for safer assets.

“There was no retail capitulation,” noted Marco Iachini, Senior Vice President of Research at Vanda. He emphasized that the data reflected the behavior of self-directed investors who manage their own trading activities without the aid of major brokerage firms or financial advisors. According to Iachini, retail investors are “continuing their dip-buying spree,” undeterred by the market’s turbulence.

Robinhood Markets, a popular trading platform among retail investors, reported a significant influx of new funds during the volatile period. The company saw $1 billion in new cash deposits from retail clients in the first week of August, with $500 million of that amount deposited during Monday’s sell-off alone. This marked a substantial increase compared to the platform’s second-quarter daily average of less than $350 million. However, Robinhood faced challenges in executing orders during overnight sessions due to extreme demand, highlighting the intensity of retail investor activity.

Contrastingly, a report by JP Morgan indicated that retail investors were “aggressive net sellers” on Monday, with the majority of selling pressure occurring during the first hour of trading. Despite this initial wave of selling, both Vanda and JP Morgan observed a strong recovery in retail buying on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As the week progressed, Vanda Research noted a surge in retail interest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, making it the second-most actively purchased security by Thursday morning, following Nvidia shares. This trend suggests that while retail investors remain engaged in the stock market, they are increasingly seeking safer havens amid growing concerns about the market’s outlook.

Supporting this cautious sentiment, Alight Solutions, which tracks trading activity in 401(k) retirement accounts, reported that its clients were actively reallocating assets from stock funds to money markets and fixed-income products. According to Rob Austin, Head of Research at Alight, trading activity was about eight times the average, although the overall shift represented just 0.1% of the $200 billion in assets tracked by the firm.