Workday Shares Drop as Lukewarm Subscription Forecast Signals Caution in Tech Budgets

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Workday Inc. saw its shares fall by 5% in extended trading Thursday after forecasting second-quarter subscription revenue that merely met Wall Street expectations, signaling caution amid weakened client spending and ongoing economic uncertainty in the enterprise software market.

The California-based human capital and financial management software provider projected Q2 subscription revenue of $2.16 billion, aligning with analysts’ consensus but doing little to boost investor confidence. The company also reiterated its full-year guidance of $8.8 billion in subscription revenue for fiscal 2026.

“We remain focused on executing in this uncertain environment,” said CFO Zane Rowe.

Despite this cautious outlook, Workday reported solid Q1 results:

  • Total revenue: $2.24 billion (vs. $2.22 billion expected)

  • Subscription revenue: $2.06 billion (slightly above $2.05 billion consensus)

  • Adjusted EPS: $2.23 per share (beating $2.01 estimate)

In tandem with its earnings release, the company announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program, a move often intended to reassure investors amid stock volatility.

Competitive Landscape and Federal Setback

Workday competes against enterprise giants like Oracle and SAP, both of which boast larger back-office software businesses. Analysts note that increased competition in the HR and finance software market may pressure pricing and margins in the coming quarters.

Adding to its recent headwinds, Workday was stripped of a federal HR platform contract earlier this month by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management. The decision followed criticism that the award process did not seek competitive bids. The canceled contract had been connected to efforts from within the Elon Musk-backed campaign to restructure federal workforce management, which could further dampen Workday’s growth in the public sector.

Analyst Outlook

While the company continues to grow and outperform near-term expectations, its muted forecast reflects broader macroeconomic concerns and signals that even resilient SaaS firms are not immune to tightening tech budgets. Analysts expect Workday to maintain its position among top enterprise software providers but caution that client spending softness and lost contracts may limit upside in the short term.

Trump Hosts $148 Million Meme Coin Dinner, Drawing Global Crypto Elite and Political Backlash

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Wealthy foreign investors gathered at Trump National Golf Club near Washington, D.C., on Thursday for a high-profile dinner celebrating holders of the $TRUMP meme coin, a cryptocurrency backed by the Trump family. The event attracted more than 220 guests from around the world and generated an estimated $148 million in meme coin purchases—fueling both significant profits for a select few and fierce criticism from lawmakers and watchdog groups.

As Donald Trump arrived via Marine One, protestors outside the club decried the event with signs reading “Stop crypto corruption” and “America is not for sale.” Inside, top-25 meme coin holders who spent over $111 million combined were granted VIP access, a private cocktail reception, and luxury gifts, including $100,000 Trump-branded tourbillon watches.

Among the attendees was Justin Sun, a China-born crypto billionaire and the top $TRUMP coin holder, whose $18.5 million wallet earned him first place in the coin contest. Sun is also an adviser to World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s crypto platform, which—along with an affiliated firm—controls 80% of the remaining $TRUMP coin supply and has earned more than $320 million in fees so far.

A menu posted on social media revealed a lavish meal of filet mignon, halibut, and lava cake served on gold-lettered cards. The event culminated in an after-party dubbed “Meme The Night,” hosted by Singapore-based MemeCore. Its co-founder, “Ice,” secured second place with a $16 million wallet.

Crypto Access Meets Political Outrage

Democratic lawmakers condemned the event as a “crypto grift” with opaque attendee lists and potential national security concerns. Senator Elizabeth Warren called the event “an orgy of corruption,” while Senator Chris Murphy raised alarm over anonymous guests like “Ogle,” a masked crypto security expert and contest winner, whose $3.6 million holding earned him 22nd place.

Republicans, meanwhile, were more measured. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a vocal crypto advocate, said the event gave her “pause,” hinting at discomfort over Trump’s expanding digital asset empire, which now includes a crypto exchange, stablecoin, bitcoin mining, and ETFs.

Winners and Losers

While top holders have profited close to $1.5 billion, analytics firms like Inca Digital and Bubblemaps report that 600,000 smaller wallets have lost a total of $3.87 billion, with $117 million in losses occurring after the dinner announcement. Analysts warn of a steep wealth disparity within the token’s community.

As political scrutiny mounts, Democrats are pushing legislation to ban presidents and lawmakers from owning or promoting crypto products. But with Republicans holding congressional majorities, chances of passing such bills remain slim in the near term.

Despite the controversy, Trump appeared confident during his speech:

“The Biden Administration persecuted crypto innovators. We’re bringing them back into the USA where they belong.”

U.S. DOJ Probes Google Over Licensing Deal with Character.AI

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The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether Google’s licensing deal with AI startup Character.AI violated antitrust laws, according to a report by Bloomberg Law. The probe focuses on whether the deal was deliberately structured to sidestep formal merger review processes.

Key Points:

  • Nature of the Deal: In 2023, Google secured a non-exclusive license to Character.AI’s large language model (LLM) technology and subsequently hired the company’s co-founders, Noam Shazeer and Daniel De Freitas—both former Google engineers.

  • Regulatory Concern: Antitrust officials are questioning if this agreement—despite not involving an acquisition—effectively gave Google undue influence or control over Character.AI’s technology, potentially undermining market competition in the fast-growing generative AI sector.

  • Google’s Response: A spokesperson stated that Google has no ownership stake in Character.AI and that the company remains independent. “We’re always happy to answer any questions from regulators,” the spokesperson said.

  • Ongoing Scrutiny: The probe is at an early stage and may not result in formal action, but it signals heightened regulatory vigilance over AI partnerships. The DOJ can still act if the deal is deemed anti-competitive, even without triggering a formal merger review.

  • Industry Trend: Similar AI talent and technology acquisition strategies have been employed by:

    • Microsoft, which paid $650 million to license Inflection AI’s models and onboard its team.

    • Amazon, which hired Adept’s co-founders and staff in 2023.
      Both deals have also drawn regulatory interest.

  • Broader Context: Google is already facing two major antitrust lawsuits from the DOJ targeting its dominance in search and digital advertising. Earlier this month, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) supported a proposal requiring Google to share its search data with rivals.

Strategic Implications:

The inquiry reflects regulators’ growing concern that Big Tech may be circumventing antitrust oversight through creative structuring of AI-related partnerships. As companies compete to lead in generative AI, expect increased scrutiny on licensing, hiring, and technology transfer deals that could entrench market power.