PayPay’s U.S. IPO could top $20 billion valuation, sources say

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PayPay, Japan’s leading digital payments platform backed by SoftBank, could be valued at more than 3 trillion yen ($20 billion) in its upcoming U.S. initial public offering (IPO) planned for December, according to people familiar with the matter.

The potential listing would make PayPay one of the largest Japanese tech IPOs in years. SoftBank, which owns PayPay through several entities including SoftBank Corp, its Vision Fund, and LY Corp, has been meeting institutional investors since mid-September to discuss pricing and valuation.

According to sources, investors view 2 trillion yen as a conservative baseline but expect higher figures due to PayPay’s dominance in Japan’s QR code payment market and its expanding suite of financial services, including banking, credit cards, and cryptocurrency.

PayPay recently launched its international payments service, beginning with South Korea, as it seeks to strengthen its growth story beyond Japan. However, some investors remain cautious about the company’s overseas potential, citing its limited infrastructure outside Asia.

Japan’s cashless payments ratio exceeded 40% last year — still below South Korea and China’s 80%+ levels — leaving room for domestic growth. Meanwhile, SoftBank’s financial segment, which includes PayPay, reported a doubling of operating profit to 18.1 billion yen in the April–June quarter.

PayPay is also moving into crypto services after acquiring a 40% stake in Binance Japan, reinforcing its position as a comprehensive fintech player.

ASML poised to benefit from AI megadeals and chip expansion wave

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Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML is expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related megadeals between major technology firms and semiconductor manufacturers, with investors anticipating a strong outlook when it reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Analysts believe ASML’s top customers — including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung — are preparing to ramp up production capacity through 2026 and beyond, driven by a global race to expand AI data centres. These expectations have already boosted ASML’s stock by 32% since early September, outpacing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose 15% in the same period.

Forecasts compiled by Visible Alpha suggest new bookings — a key industry indicator — will total 5.36 billion euros ($6.21 billion) for the quarter, following 9.48 billion euros in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, net income is projected to rise 1.4% year-on-year to 2.11 billion euros, according to LSEG IBES data.

Recent multi-billion-dollar deals between NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Samsung, Meta, and Oracle are fuelling optimism for ASML, whose machines — costing more than $300 million each — are essential for producing advanced chip circuitry.

However, analysts note that building fabrication plants can take several years. They want to hear whether ASML’s clients can accelerate these expansion plans amid rising demand. “Every memory chipmaker is likely to increase production capacity for AI,” said Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam, citing Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Chinese competitors.

Samsung forecasts best profit in three years amid AI-driven chip boom

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Samsung Electronics said it expects its largest quarterly profit since 2022, as a global surge in demand for AI and memory chips pushes prices higher and tightens supply. The South Korean tech giant estimated an operating profit of 12.1 trillion won ($8.5 billion) for the July–September quarter, up 32% year-on-year and well above the 10.1 trillion won expected by analysts. This marks Samsung’s best performance in 13 quarters.

Analysts said the surprise earnings were powered by strong demand for commodity memory chips, used in data centre servers, which offset slower-than-expected progress in the company’s high bandwidth memory (HBM) chip sales to Nvidia. Despite slipping 0.5% in morning trade after an early rally, Samsung’s stock has risen around 75% this year, reflecting investor confidence in its chip rebound.

Experts noted that reduced inventories and stronger DRAM and NAND prices have given Samsung an edge. “Samsung is a big beneficiary of growing demand for commodity chips,” said Sohn In-joon from Heungkuk Securities. Meanwhile, narrower losses at its foundry unit helped ease cost pressures.

The company also expects revenue to hit a record 86 trillion won, up 8.7% year-on-year, aided by a weaker won. However, analysts warned that trade tensions between the U.S. and China, potential U.S. tariffs, and China’s export controls on rare earth materials could cloud future performance.

Samsung plans to release full quarterly results on October 30 and has reportedly introduced a stock-based incentive plan for all South Korean employees to align performance with company growth.