Salesforce Shares Slide as Weak Outlook Highlights Delayed AI Payoff

Salesforce (CRM.N) shares fell nearly 8% on Thursday after the company issued a disappointing third-quarter revenue forecast, raising investor concerns that returns from its artificial intelligence investments may take longer to materialize.

The company projected revenue between $10.24 billion and $10.29 billion, with the midpoint falling short of analysts’ average estimate of $10.29 billion, according to LSEG data. Despite announcing a $20 billion expansion of its share buyback program, Salesforce’s muted guidance weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The outlook comes as software companies face mounting pressure to prove that billion-dollar AI investments will deliver meaningful returns, even as customers scale back spending in an uncertain economic environment. Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the guidance gives “bears fresh ammo amid mounting fears that the software sector is ripe for disruption.”

Salesforce has been rapidly integrating AI across its cloud services, including the 2024 launch of Agentforce, an AI-powered agent platform designed to automate workflows and improve margins. However, the company continues to face macroeconomic headwinds. Analysts at Oppenheimer described the growth outlook as “uninspiring,” noting challenges for front-office software suppliers this year.

Shares of Salesforce are down about 24% year-to-date. To strengthen its offerings, the company has returned to acquisitions, including its $8 billion purchase of Informatica in May. Still, Salesforce trades at a forward earnings multiple of 20.96—well below Microsoft’s 31.26 and Oracle’s 30.84—suggesting potential upside.

J.P. Morgan analysts said second-quarter results, which beat revenue expectations, alongside management’s positive commentary, indicate that Salesforce stock may be undervalued compared to peers, leaving room for recovery.