The worldwide race to produce advanced AI chips is causing a supply crunch for more traditional memory chips used in smartphones, computers, and servers — triggering panic buying and steep price increases across the semiconductor industry. Executives and analysts say the AI frenzy has unexpectedly set off a “super cycle” in the memory market, giving long-awaited relief to manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology.
As chipmakers shift production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — essential for powering Nvidia’s AI processors — the supply of conventional DRAM and DDR5 server memory has tightened sharply. According to Fusion Worldwide president Tobey Gonnerman, demand has surged “in a fast and furious way,” leading to double and triple ordering reminiscent of past shortages.
The shortage coincides with a replacement cycle for data centers and personal computers, alongside stronger-than-expected smartphone sales. As a result, spot prices of DRAM nearly tripled in September compared to last year, while average inventories have dropped to just eight weeks, down from 31 weeks in early 2023.
Analysts predict that non-HBM chips could soon surpass HBM in profitability if current trends continue. In the latest quarter, Samsung earned an estimated 40% margin on commodity DRAMs, compared with 60% on HBMs. Rising prices have already pushed companies like Raspberry Pi to raise consumer prices, citing memory costs that have more than doubled over the past year.
Still, experts warn against overhyping a permanent boom. TechInsights vice chair Dan Hutcheson said the current cycle may last only a year or two, with a potential industry downturn forecast for 2027. While Samsung stands to benefit most from its non-HBM dominance, investors remain cautious about its ability to close the gap with rivals SK Hynix and TSMC in next-generation AI chip technologies.