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Zalando Revises 2025 Outlook Amid Inventory and Growth Concerns

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Zalando, Germany’s largest online fashion marketplace, has adjusted its 2025 guidance following the acquisition of rival About You. While the updated forecast reflects higher expected sales, analysts and investors expressed concern over growing inventories, heavier discounting, and signs of weaker consumer sentiment—factors that could weigh on second-half performance.

After initially gaining, Zalando’s shares fell 5.6% to their lowest level in almost a year, bringing year-to-date losses to around 25%. Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane noted that the stock’s appeal as a revenue growth play is now in question, with less potential for earnings to exceed expectations.

The company now expects 2025 gross merchandise volume (GMV) of €17.2–€17.6 billion ($19.91–$20.38 billion), representing 12–15% growth from last year’s figures for the combined group. This is a sharp increase from its previous forecast of 4–9% growth, largely due to the inclusion of About You, acquired in July for €1.13 billion.

Second-quarter GMV rose 5% year-on-year to €4.06 billion, but gross margin slipped by 80 basis points due to increased discounting. Analysts flagged that earnings quality was weaker than hoped and pointed to a 15% year-on-year inventory rise to €1.66 billion by June 30, raising the risk of more markdowns ahead.

Co-CEO Robert Gentz acknowledged weaker consumer sentiment but remained optimistic about a strong second half. Interim CFO David Schroeder said the third quarter had started well, with mid-single-digit growth expected to continue.

Zalando is also expanding its European logistics network, opening it to partners in an effort to boost growth amid rising competition from fast-fashion rivals like Shein. The company forecasts 2025 adjusted EBIT of €550–€600 million for the combined group, up from its prior estimate of €530–€590 million excluding About You. Gentz added that while U.S. tariffs would not directly affect operations, they could dampen consumer sentiment in the long term.

Zalando Launches Public Tender Offer for About You

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Zalando (ZALG.DE) has officially launched a public tender offer for its rival, About You (YOUG.DE), following approval from Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, BaFin. The acceptance period for the offer begins today and will conclude on February 17, 2025.

Details of the Offer

  • Offer Price: Zalando is offering €6.50 ($6.71) per share in cash to About You shareholders.
  • No Minimum Acceptance Threshold: The takeover is not subject to a minimum acceptance threshold, meaning that the offer could proceed regardless of the number of shares accepted.

Background and Timeline

The public tender offer follows Zalando’s announcement in December regarding its plan to acquire About You. This move represents Zalando’s latest step in expanding its footprint in the online retail sector, directly competing with other major players in the European market.