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ASML said it expects Chinese sales to fall “significantly” next year, after having made up nearly half of company sales in 2024 and a third so far in 2025. CFO Roger Dassen said on a media call the decline was a “normalization” and not due to stockpiling amid the U.S.-China trade war. U.S.-led export restrictions mean ASML cannot sell its most advanced tools in China, a point of contention between the superpowers, with China recently tightening control of exports of rare earth metals. ASML said it would not be affected by those restrictions in the short term. ASML said sales will be, at worst, flat in 2026, from around 32.5 billion euros ($37.82 billion) in 2025. “We believe the bearish view of a worse than expected 2026 will be put to rest and the market will focus on the extent the company can grow in 2027”, JPMorgan analysts said. ASML’s lithography tools, key for making chip circuitry, are sold to TSMC of Taiwan (2330.TW), opens new tab – which makes most AI chips for Nvidia – and to other logic chip firms such as China’s SMIC (0981.HK), opens new tab and Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab. It also serves memory chip makers like Samsung (005930.KS), opens new tab, SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab and Micron (MU.O), opens new tab. The company reported third-quarter net income of 2.12 billion euros, in line with the 2.11 billion euros analysts expected, according to LSEG IBES data.

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ASML, the world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making machines, surpassed market expectations for new orders as global demand for AI technologies continues to surge. CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that the company is experiencing “continued positive momentum around investments in AI,” which is fueling growth in both advanced logic and memory chip sectors.

The Dutch tech giant reported net bookings of €5.40 billion for the third quarter, slightly above analysts’ forecasts, and confirmed a net income of €2.12 billion — matching market expectations. ASML’s shares have jumped 37% since September and rose an additional 3.2% in early trading to €873.80.

However, ASML warned that sales to China are expected to fall sharply next year after years of rapid growth. CFO Roger Dassen described the dip as a “normalization” rather than a response to U.S.-China trade tensions. U.S. export controls continue to prevent ASML from selling its most advanced lithography systems in China, though the company said recent Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports won’t affect it in the near term.

ASML now forecasts flat sales in 2026, around €32.5 billion, before growth resumes in 2027. Analysts at JPMorgan believe market concerns over a weaker 2026 will ease, shifting focus toward the company’s long-term expansion prospects. ASML’s customers include major chipmakers such as TSMC, Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which all play critical roles in AI hardware development.

IMF economist warns AI boom may echo dot-com bust but unlikely to trigger financial crisis

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The U.S. artificial intelligence investment boom could end in a dot-com-style market correction, but it is unlikely to spark a systemic financial crisis, according to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Speaking at the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, Gourinchas told Reuters that the AI frenzy mirrors the late 1990s internet bubble, with surging stock valuations and paper wealth driving consumption and inflation. “This is not financed by debt,” he said, adding that a potential crash would hurt shareholders and equity holders, but not destabilize the broader banking system.

The IMF said investment in AI chips, data centers, and computing infrastructure has fueled optimism about future productivity gains, though these benefits have yet to materialize. Unlike the dot-com era — when technology investment jumped 1.2% of U.S. GDP between 1995 and 2000 — AI-related spending has so far increased by only 0.4% of GDP since 2022.

While the IMF does not expect a direct threat to financial stability, Gourinchas cautioned that a correction could trigger a broader repricing of assets and stress on non-bank financial institutions.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook noted that AI investment, alongside lower-than-expected tariffs and easier financial conditions, has helped sustain global growth. However, Gourinchas warned that AI-driven spending and consumption could add to inflation pressures without corresponding productivity gains.

The IMF now projects U.S. inflation to ease more slowly, reaching 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. He added that the lingering effects of tariffs and reduced immigration are constraining supply and keeping prices elevated.

Analysts weigh in on Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI investment and strategic compute pact

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Nvidia’s decision to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI — securing at least 10 gigawatts of compute capacity — is being hailed as a power play that cements its dominance in AI infrastructure. But analysts caution the partnership also carries risks of overexposure and market concentration.

Matt Britzman, Hargreaves Lansdown:
Britzman called the deal a “huge prize” for Nvidia, estimating each gigawatt of AI data center capacity could equate to $50 billion in revenue. By tying OpenAI closely to its hardware and software ecosystem, Nvidia raises the stakes for rivals, ensuring GPUs remain the foundation of next-gen AI.

Jacob Bourne, eMarketer:
Bourne said the move reassures investors about Nvidia’s long-term demand pipeline while fending off competitive threats from rival chipmakers or Big Tech’s in-house chips. For OpenAI, the deal signals growing independence from Microsoft as it diversifies funding and resources.

Anshel Sag, Moor Insights & Strategy:
Sag highlighted the long-standing relationship between the firms, saying this validates Nvidia’s growth targets while giving OpenAI the scale to serve even larger customers.

Ben Bajarin, Creative Strategies:
Bajarin described the partnership as practical: Nvidia is simply enabling OpenAI to meet surging demand for GPUs, which remain its core compute backbone.

Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital:
Forrest was more skeptical, warning that “being totally linked with each other” risks short-sightedness and could open doors for competitors to court other AI companies. She also questioned whether large language models (LLMs) will ultimately deliver the sweeping productivity gains many expect.

Gil Luria, D.A. Davidson:
Luria suggested Nvidia may be acting as the “investor of last resort,” propping up OpenAI’s heavy spending commitments rather than purely chasing opportunity.

David Wagner, Aptus Capital Advisors:
Wagner said the investment reflects CEO Jensen Huang’s long-term vision of building out “AI factories,” though the timing came earlier than many anticipated.

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein:
Rasgon noted the partnership helps OpenAI pursue its ambitious compute goals while ensuring Nvidia hardware powers the expansion. But he flagged “circular” concerns about whether Nvidia is essentially financing its own demand, a critique that could intensify.

The mixed reactions underscore the scale of Nvidia’s gamble: a bet that doubling down on OpenAI — while fending off rivals — will extend its dominance in the AI era, even as questions linger over long-term sustainability.