ASML said it expects Chinese sales to fall “significantly” next year, after having made up nearly half of company sales in 2024 and a third so far in 2025. CFO Roger Dassen said on a media call the decline was a “normalization” and not due to stockpiling amid the U.S.-China trade war. U.S.-led export restrictions mean ASML cannot sell its most advanced tools in China, a point of contention between the superpowers, with China recently tightening control of exports of rare earth metals. ASML said it would not be affected by those restrictions in the short term. ASML said sales will be, at worst, flat in 2026, from around 32.5 billion euros ($37.82 billion) in 2025. “We believe the bearish view of a worse than expected 2026 will be put to rest and the market will focus on the extent the company can grow in 2027”, JPMorgan analysts said. ASML’s lithography tools, key for making chip circuitry, are sold to TSMC of Taiwan (2330.TW), opens new tab – which makes most AI chips for Nvidia – and to other logic chip firms such as China’s SMIC (0981.HK), opens new tab and Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab. It also serves memory chip makers like Samsung (005930.KS), opens new tab, SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab and Micron (MU.O), opens new tab. The company reported third-quarter net income of 2.12 billion euros, in line with the 2.11 billion euros analysts expected, according to LSEG IBES data.

ASML, the world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making machines, surpassed market expectations for new orders as global demand for AI technologies continues to surge. CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that the company is experiencing “continued positive momentum around investments in AI,” which is fueling growth in both advanced logic and memory chip sectors.

The Dutch tech giant reported net bookings of €5.40 billion for the third quarter, slightly above analysts’ forecasts, and confirmed a net income of €2.12 billion — matching market expectations. ASML’s shares have jumped 37% since September and rose an additional 3.2% in early trading to €873.80.

However, ASML warned that sales to China are expected to fall sharply next year after years of rapid growth. CFO Roger Dassen described the dip as a “normalization” rather than a response to U.S.-China trade tensions. U.S. export controls continue to prevent ASML from selling its most advanced lithography systems in China, though the company said recent Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports won’t affect it in the near term.

ASML now forecasts flat sales in 2026, around €32.5 billion, before growth resumes in 2027. Analysts at JPMorgan believe market concerns over a weaker 2026 will ease, shifting focus toward the company’s long-term expansion prospects. ASML’s customers include major chipmakers such as TSMC, Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which all play critical roles in AI hardware development.