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Amazon’s Cloud Business Faces Crucial Test After Rivals Microsoft and Google Struggle

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Amazon is under intense pressure as it prepares to report its fourth-quarter results on Thursday, with high expectations surrounding its cloud business amid growing concerns over Big Tech’s investments in artificial intelligence (AI). After disappointing earnings from Microsoft and Google, which fueled investor concerns about the costs of AI, Amazon’s performance could be a pivotal moment in the tech sector.

Shares of major tech companies surged in recent years, driven by the belief that the AI boom and its massive data center needs would sustain growth. However, these expectations were rattled when DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, announced breakthroughs at a fraction of the cost, causing a selloff in tech stocks.

Despite these challenges, Amazon may be in a stronger position than its rivals, analysts say. Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world’s largest cloud services provider, is poised to report a 19.3% revenue growth, its highest increase in eight quarters. The company is also expected to benefit from its early embrace of DeepSeek’s AI models and plans to release its generative AI voice service, Alexa, later this month.

While Microsoft and Google face slowing cloud growth, Amazon has maintained optimism about its cloud business. Some analysts believe that Amazon has regained ground in the AI race, thanks to its increased investment in companies like Anthropic and a broad selection of AI models available through AWS. “We believe AWS is regaining share,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, highlighting Amazon’s strength in AI despite initial slower growth compared to Microsoft and Google.

Amazon’s valuation remains higher than its competitors, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 39, compared to Microsoft’s 29 and Alphabet’s 22.4. This strong position could help Amazon surpass market expectations and emerge as a leader in the AI-driven cloud market.

In addition to its cloud growth, Amazon is benefiting from a strong retail performance. Analysts expect Amazon’s North American sales to rise 9% in the fourth quarter, fueled by a successful holiday shopping season. Increased consumer spending, particularly in e-commerce, and Amazon’s expansion into groceries, pharmacy, and fashion are expected to propel its growth in the retail sector.

With a favorable holiday season and a competitive edge in AI, Amazon’s upcoming report could restore confidence in the tech giant, positioning it for long-term success.

 

Alphabet Plans Massive Capex Increase as Cloud Revenue Growth Slows

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Alphabet (GOOGL.O) announced plans to spend $75 billion on its AI infrastructure in 2025, a 29% increase over Wall Street’s expectations. This announcement led to a 9% drop in Alphabet’s stock in after-hours trading as investors expressed disappointment with the company’s missed cloud revenue target and growing concerns over its profitability.

Alphabet’s planned capex for 2025 exceeds analysts’ expectations of $58 billion and marks a dramatic increase from the $52.5 billion spent in 2024. CEO Sundar Pichai defended this surge in investment, citing the enormous potential of the AI space and promising that the cost of AI technology would continue to decrease, making it more accessible. Despite this optimism, Alphabet reported a slowdown in its cloud revenue growth, which failed to meet projections.

The company’s cloud business saw a 30% rise in revenue, reaching $11.96 billion for the fourth quarter. However, this was a deceleration from the 35% growth in the previous quarter and missed the expected $12.16 billion. Pichai emphasized that the Gemini family of AI models would drive further growth within the cloud platform, noting that developer usage of Gemini had doubled in the last six months.

Alphabet’s capital spending is primarily focused on building servers and data centers to support its AI initiatives. The company’s cloud segment has faced heightened competition, especially from rivals like Microsoft and Amazon, with the latter set to release its quarterly results soon.

Meanwhile, Alphabet’s core advertising business, which represents around 75% of total revenue, showed positive performance, with ad revenue growing 10.6% to $72.46 billion in the fourth quarter. YouTube contributed significantly to this growth, with ad revenue increasing by 13.8%.

Alphabet’s overall revenue for the quarter rose 12% to $96.47 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, while profits came in at $2.15 per share, above the forecasted $2.13 per share.

 

AMD’s AI Strategy Faces Investor Scrutiny Amid Shift to Custom Chips

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) faces heightened investor scrutiny over its artificial intelligence (AI) strategy as Big Tech firms increasingly develop custom silicon, potentially limiting AMD’s role in AI infrastructure. The company is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting a 22% revenue surge to $7.53 billion. However, competition from Nvidia and the growing adoption of proprietary chips by Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have raised concerns about AMD’s long-term AI growth prospects.

Tech giants are ramping up investments in in-house AI chip development, benefiting companies like Broadcom and Marvell Technology, which provide hyperscalers with custom AI processors. Broadcom expects AI to represent a $90 billion revenue opportunity by 2027, a factor that helped its stock more than double last year. Marvell saw an 83% rise, while AMD’s stock fell 18% in 2024.

Despite this shift, AMD’s AI processor sales are expected to reach up to $10 billion in 2024, double its initial forecast of $5 billion. Its data center chip segment, projected to grow 82% to $4.15 billion in Q4, is expected to drive over half of total revenue. Meanwhile, its personal computer division is forecasted to rise 33% to $1.94 billion, as AMD continues to gain market share from Intel.

Supply chain constraints remain a challenge, with TSMC working to expand production capacity for AI chip packaging. However, Nvidia’s ramp-up of its latest “Blackwell” AI chips could limit AMD’s ability to secure additional manufacturing resources.

Despite these hurdles, AMD’s fourth-quarter net income is set to rise by more than 61% to $1.08 billion, reflecting strong demand for its products.