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AMD Warns of $1.5 Billion Revenue Hit from U.S. China Chip Export Curbs, But AI Demand Remains Strong

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) warned on Tuesday that new U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China will cost the company $1.5 billion in revenue for 2025, as Washington intensifies efforts to limit China’s access to advanced technology. Despite the projected hit, AMD’s second-quarter revenue forecast surpassed Wall Street expectations, buoyed by early chip purchases from customers bracing for trade disruptions.

The Biden and Trump administrations have both ramped up controls on exports of high-performance chips to China, citing national security risks related to AI capabilities. These measures now require chipmakers like AMD and Nvidia to obtain export licenses, effectively slowing or blocking shipments of advanced processors.

CEO Lisa Su said most of the export-related impact will be felt in Q2 and Q3, but expressed confidence in broader business strength. “It’s certainly a headwind, but one which we think is well contained,” Su said, noting that AI chip revenue in AMD’s data center segment is expected to grow by “strong double digits” this year.

China represents about 25% of AMD’s total revenue, and the export curbs are expected to shave nearly 5% off 2025 revenue projections, which currently sit at $31.03 billion, per LSEG data.

In Q1, AMD reported:

  • Total revenue of $7.44 billion, up 36% year-over-year, beating the estimate of $7.25 billion

  • Adjusted earnings of 96 cents per share, 2 cents above consensus

  • Data center revenue surged 57% to $3.7 billion, above the $3.62 billion estimate

For Q2, AMD expects revenue of $7.4 billion ± $300 million, also ahead of forecasts. However, the company is still absorbing an $800 million charge due to April’s newly enacted tariffs.

CFO Jean Hu confirmed the $1.5 billion forecasted revenue loss is tied directly to the latest April export controls. Analysts suggest the current surge in orders reflects “pre-buying behavior” from large cloud clients like Microsoft and Meta, who are stockpiling chips ahead of licensing uncertainty.

“Once those safety-stock closets are full, Q3 could feel like the morning after a Red Bull binge,”
warned Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital.

Meanwhile, rivals Marvell Technology and Super Micro both disappointed investors, citing economic uncertainty and reduced AI-related optimism. Their shares fell 4.5% and 5%, respectively, in after-hours trading.

AMD’s solid results highlight its growing role in powering AI infrastructure for hyperscalers, even as trade tensions and tariffs loom over the semiconductor industry.

Super Micro Shares Fall After Forecasting Q4 Revenue Below Estimates Amid Tariff, Spending Concerns

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O), a leading AI server manufacturer, projected fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations, causing its shares to drop 5.4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. The company cited economic uncertainty, tariffs, and delayed customer spending as near-term headwinds.

The San Jose-based firm forecast Q4 revenue between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, falling short of analysts’ average estimate of $6.82 billion, according to LSEG data. The company has benefited from surging demand for AI data center infrastructure, leveraging chips from Nvidia, AMD, and others, but has also faced accounting issues in recent months that sparked delisting concerns on the Nasdaq.

Despite some clients delaying purchases, Super Micro expects those deferred deals to materialize in the June–September quarter. However, investor sentiment remains cautious, particularly in light of growing concerns about AI investment slowdowns and tariff-related impacts.

Kim Caughey Forrest of Bokeh Capital Partners suggested the lowered guidance might be self-inflicted, rather than purely market-driven, while D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria noted the possibility that Super Micro may be losing market share to competitors like Dell, rather than signaling a broader downturn in AI infrastructure demand.

For fiscal year 2025, Super Micro revised its revenue forecast downward to $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, from a previously expected $23.5 billion to $25.0 billion.

The company had released preliminary results last week, but the lower guidance and uncertain macroeconomic environment continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Microsoft to Extend Snapdragon-Exclusive AI Features to Intel, AMD Copilot+ PCs

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Microsoft Expands AI Features to Intel and AMD Copilot+ PCs

Microsoft has announced an expansion of its exclusive AI features to Intel and AMD-powered Copilot+ PCs. Initially, these advanced AI tools were only available to users with Snapdragon X series chipsets. However, as of this week, the tech giant is rolling out a range of powerful AI functionalities in Windows 11, including Live Captions, Cocreator, Restyle Image, and Image Creator, to select Intel and AMD chipsets. Additionally, Voice Access capabilities are being updated for Copilot+ PCs running on Snapdragon X series chipsets, enhancing the accessibility of these devices.

In a blog post, Microsoft’s Corporate Vice President of Windows Experiences, Navjot Virk, confirmed the integration of these AI features into devices powered by AMD Ryzen AI 300 series and Intel Core Ultra 200V chipsets. These tools, which were previously exclusive to Snapdragon chipsets, will now be accessible to a wider audience with the March 2025 Windows non-security preview update. The update is being rolled out gradually via Microsoft’s controlled feature rollout (CFR) throughout the month.

Among the most anticipated features are Live Captions, Cocreator, Restyle Image, and Image Creator. Live Captions provides real-time translations for audio and video content, making it an invaluable tool for virtual meetings, podcasts, and video playback. Cocreator, available within the Paint app, enables users to transform simple sketches into sophisticated artwork, with adjustable levels of creativity. Restyle Image, available in the Photos app, allows users to turn their photos into various artistic styles, such as oil paintings or modern art, providing a new way to creatively interact with their images. Meanwhile, Image Creator generates artwork and illustrations based on user-input text prompts, giving users the ability to bring their ideas to life through AI.

With the integration of these features across both Intel and AMD-powered Copilot+ PCs, Microsoft is not only broadening the scope of its AI tools but also ensuring that these capabilities are more widely available, thus offering an enhanced user experience for a larger pool of customers. This move further solidifies Microsoft’s commitment to bringing cutting-edge AI innovations to a broader range of devices.