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Arm Lowers Full-Year Forecast, Shares Fall 6%

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Arm Holdings has revised its full-year revenue guidance downward, announcing that it will no longer meet the top end of its previous forecast. The chip technology provider, which has benefitted from the AI boom, reported a slight miss on its broader revenue expectations, sending its shares down by about 6% in extended trading.

Arm narrowed its revenue guidance for the full year to a range of $3.94 billion to $4.04 billion, down from the previous range of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. The company also adjusted its earnings per share forecast. Despite this, the company surpassed Wall Street’s expectations for the current quarter, with a forecast of $1.23 billion in revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, compared to an analyst estimate of $1.22 billion.

CEO Rene Haas explained that the downward revision was due to the company being near the end of its fiscal year, providing more visibility on its final figures. Investors had been hoping for a more optimistic outlook, particularly with Arm’s technology being adopted for AI server chips and the increasing use of its higher royalty rate Armv9 design for smartphones.

Arm’s third-quarter revenue rose by 19% to $983 million, exceeding analysts’ expectations. The company continues to benefit from its widespread use in smartphones, including Apple’s latest iPhone, where its Armv9 chips are used. However, Arm faces challenges as it attempts to compete with its largest customers by raising prices and increasing royalties. Recently, the company encountered a setback in its attempt to secure higher royalties from Qualcomm, with the dispute culminating in a court case.

Arm’s participation in the U.S. government’s $500-billion AI infrastructure venture, Stargate, highlights its significance in the AI space. However, the company’s strained relationship with major customers like Qualcomm remains a challenge as it seeks to grow in new markets such as data centers.

 

Arm Holdings Plans Major Price Increases, Considers Developing Own Chips

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Arm Holdings, a key supplier of chip designs to tech giants such as Apple, Qualcomm, and Microsoft, is planning to increase its chip royalty rates by as much as 300%. The company, owned 90% by SoftBank Group, has also discussed the possibility of designing its own chips to directly compete with its major customers. These moves are part of Arm’s long-term strategy to increase its revenue and expand beyond licensing intellectual property.

Strategic Shifts and Pricing Plans

Arm’s pricing strategy, referred to as the “Picasso” project, aims to secure a $1 billion increase in smartphone-related revenue over the next decade. Part of this initiative includes raising the royalty rates it charges for ready-made chip designs, especially those based on its latest architecture, Armv9. However, large customers like Apple and Qualcomm may avoid some of these hikes by designing their own chips using Arm’s technology, bypassing Arm’s pre-designed components.

Documents presented during a trial in 2024 revealed that Arm had considered a dramatic 300% price increase for its royalty rates, though this proposal was never fully implemented. Despite the uncertainty, Arm executives expressed confidence in the company’s ability to push forward with these higher prices, even amid the possibility of losing some customers to in-house chip designs.

Competition with Customers

Arm’s ambitions to compete directly with its clients, particularly in chip design, were highlighted in testimony from CEO Rene Haas. In a conversation with an executive, Haas hinted that Arm could eventually create its own chips to compete against customers like Qualcomm, calling them “hosed” if the company pursued this path. This bold strategy has raised concerns among Arm’s customers, with analysts suggesting that Arm’s move could unsettle the market.

Despite this, Haas downplayed his comments, attributing them to informal brainstorming sessions about potential future strategies. While Arm has not yet entered the chip-manufacturing business, the company is exploring possibilities for evolving its business model.

Industry Reactions and Future Plans

Arm’s plans for expansion beyond its traditional licensing business model could significantly alter the competitive landscape in the tech industry. The company’s proposal to work more closely with device makers and secure deals directly with manufacturers has already begun to impact relationships, as evidenced by a meeting between Arm’s CEO and Samsung in 2022. This conversation stirred concerns about Qualcomm’s ability to supply chips to Samsung in the future, leading to changes in their supply agreements.

In response to these developments, analysts have expressed concern over how Arm’s potential shift toward chip design could affect its customer base, especially as it risks upsetting relationships with major firms in the semiconductor industry.