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AI-Simulated Fed Meeting Shows Political Pressure Polarises Policymakers

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A new study from George Washington University has used AI agents modeled on Federal Reserve policymakers to simulate a July 2025 FOMC meeting — and the results suggest that political pressure can fragment decision-making even inside the central bank.

The research, by Sophia Kazinnik and Tara Sinclair, programmed AI agents with each policymaker’s historical stances, biographies, and speeches, then fed them real-time economic data and financial news. The AI-driven board reached decisions much like the real FOMC — but when political scrutiny was introduced, dissent increased and consensus eroded.

“This simulation shows that the Federal Reserve is only partially insulated from politics,” the authors wrote. “Outside scrutiny can shape internal decision-making, even in an institution guided by formal rules.”

Central Banks Turn to AI

While no central bank is ready to let AI set monetary policy, many are adopting the technology to improve analysis and efficiency:

  • Federal Reserve: researched generative AI to analyze FOMC minutes.

  • European Central Bank: uses machine learning to forecast euro-area inflation.

  • Bank of Japan: applies AI to economic analysis; its 2023 study used large language models to track price drivers shifting from raw materials to labor costs.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia: testing AI tools that summarize policy-related questions, though Governor Michele Bullock stressed the tech is for analysis, not policymaking.

A Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report in April noted AI’s “strategic importance” but said most central banks remain in the early adoption phase, citing governance and data quality as key hurdles.

The Fed simulation underscores both the promise and perils of applying AI to policymaking: while powerful at capturing complex dynamics, it also exposes how political forces might destabilize even rule-bound institutions.

Tech Surge and BOJ’s Dovish Comments Boost Wall Street

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Wall Street’s main indexes advanced on Wednesday, supported by gains in megacap stocks and a dovish shift by Japan’s top policymaker after a surprise interest rate hike last week that had triggered volatility in global markets. Major technology stocks saw gains of at least 2%, led by Amazon.com rising 2.6%, though Tesla dipped nearly 1%. All major S&P sectors were trading higher, with information technology and energy leading the gains. Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, noted, “Many investors are sitting on big gains in tech stocks … so it’s important for investors to right size their risk,” while predicting continued volatility.

The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, declined to 23.09 points from a high of 65.73 on Monday. A surprise rate hike by the BOJ on July 31 to a level unseen in 15 years had sparked a global stock rout as investors unwound their sharp yen carry trade positions. However, on Wednesday, global equity markets extended their rebound after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated the central bank would not raise rates when financial markets are unstable, pushing the yen lower and boosting market sentiment.

By 11:22 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350.48 points, or 0.90%, to 39,348.14, the S&P 500 gained 71.02 points, or 1.36%, to 5,311.05, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 268.20 points, or 1.64%, to 16,635.06. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended Tuesday more than 1% higher following comments from Federal Reserve officials that eased recession worries and shifted the spotlight back to earnings.

Fortinet jumped 24.6% after raising its annual revenue forecast, while Airbnb slid 12.7% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below estimates and warning of shorter booking windows. Walt Disney fell 1.9% predicting a ‘moderation in demand’ at its theme parks, Super Micro Computer lost 16.3% after reporting quarterly adjusted gross margins below estimates, and Amgen fell 4.4% due to higher expenses offsetting revenue increases. The markets await further commentary on monetary policy from U.S. central bank officials next week, ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole event.