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Global regulators step up oversight of AI risks in finance

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Global financial watchdogs are intensifying their scrutiny of artificial intelligence (AI) in the banking sector, warning that heavy reliance on shared AI systems could threaten financial stability. As the use of AI accelerates across global markets, regulators are moving to monitor systemic risks and strengthen their own technological capabilities.

In a report published Friday, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) — which advises G20 governments — said widespread adoption of the same AI models and infrastructure could create “herd-like behaviour” across financial institutions. “This heavy reliance can create vulnerabilities if there are few alternatives available,” the FSB cautioned, warning that such concentration could amplify shocks during market stress.

A separate study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) urged regulators and central banks to “raise their game” in monitoring and using AI. The BIS said authorities must not only understand AI’s potential to reshape markets but also adopt the technology themselves to improve supervision and data analysis.

The report comes amid an international race — led by the United States and China — to dominate next-generation AI tools and applications, including those that underpin financial services.

While the FSB said there is currently “little empirical evidence” that AI-driven correlations have directly impacted market outcomes, it warned that AI could increase exposure to cyberattacks and algorithmic fraud.

Some jurisdictions have already acted. The European Union’s Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), which took effect in January, establishes new rules for digital and AI-based systems used by financial institutions.

The emerging consensus among regulators is clear: AI promises efficiency and insight, but without vigilant oversight, it could become a new source of systemic risk in global finance.

AI-Simulated Fed Meeting Shows Political Pressure Polarises Policymakers

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A new study from George Washington University has used AI agents modeled on Federal Reserve policymakers to simulate a July 2025 FOMC meeting — and the results suggest that political pressure can fragment decision-making even inside the central bank.

The research, by Sophia Kazinnik and Tara Sinclair, programmed AI agents with each policymaker’s historical stances, biographies, and speeches, then fed them real-time economic data and financial news. The AI-driven board reached decisions much like the real FOMC — but when political scrutiny was introduced, dissent increased and consensus eroded.

“This simulation shows that the Federal Reserve is only partially insulated from politics,” the authors wrote. “Outside scrutiny can shape internal decision-making, even in an institution guided by formal rules.”

Central Banks Turn to AI

While no central bank is ready to let AI set monetary policy, many are adopting the technology to improve analysis and efficiency:

  • Federal Reserve: researched generative AI to analyze FOMC minutes.

  • European Central Bank: uses machine learning to forecast euro-area inflation.

  • Bank of Japan: applies AI to economic analysis; its 2023 study used large language models to track price drivers shifting from raw materials to labor costs.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia: testing AI tools that summarize policy-related questions, though Governor Michele Bullock stressed the tech is for analysis, not policymaking.

A Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report in April noted AI’s “strategic importance” but said most central banks remain in the early adoption phase, citing governance and data quality as key hurdles.

The Fed simulation underscores both the promise and perils of applying AI to policymaking: while powerful at capturing complex dynamics, it also exposes how political forces might destabilize even rule-bound institutions.

The Peak Interest Rate Era Is Ending: What Investors Are Watching Next

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Global central banks are entering a new phase, shifting from historically high interest rates towards easing monetary policy as inflation shows signs of cooling. The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and other major institutions are preparing to cut rates this fall, signaling an end to an era of elevated borrowing costs.

As markets anticipate multiple rate cuts by the Fed before year-end, analysts see central banks across Europe and beyond adopting similar moves, even as they grapple with sticky inflation in the services sector. For example, data suggest the ECB and BoE could each implement at least three 25 basis point cuts over the coming months.

For investors, this lower-rate environment points to potential stock market volatility and sector rotation, especially in tech, AI, and other high-growth industries. The U.S. labor market remains a focal point, with upcoming jobs reports key to shaping the Fed’s trajectory. The risk of a U.S. soft landing remains high, with investors eyeing inflation trends and potential shocks like U.S. tariff changes if political dynamics shift.

In currency markets, inflation and rate expectations will continue to drive moves, particularly for the euro and U.S. dollar. While global rate cuts may support growth in equities, particularly through 2025, economic data and geopolitical events will influence both volatility and market positioning.

Investors are watching closely as central banks navigate this delicate balance between rate cuts and inflationary pressures while gauging the implications for long-term growth.