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China’s Birth Rate Crisis: Limited Incentives Amid Growing Challenges

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China’s recent initiatives to increase birth rates have done little to address the underlying causes of the country’s declining birth rates, according to analysts. Despite lifting the one-child policy nearly a decade ago, birth rates remain at historic lows. In 2022, China recorded only 9.02 million births, a record low, and new marriage registrations fell by 25% year-on-year in the third quarter, setting a trajectory for the lowest figures since 1979.

China’s pro-natal policies thus far focus on easing family planning but have yet to spark the desired “birth spurt.” Lauren Johnston, associate professor at the University of Sydney, explains that these policies are designed more to “support families” rather than boost birth rates significantly. Some recent measures include extending maternity leave from 98 to 158 days and offering subsidies for families with children under age 3. However, Johnston points out that these policies mark “a small step in a long-run agenda.”

The influence of China’s former one-child policy still lingers, shaping young people’s attitudes toward family planning and limiting birth rates. Harry Murphy Cruise, economist at Moody’s Analytics, highlights a “mental hangover” from the policy that has reshaped family expectations. Combined with economic uncertainty and a slowed job market, many young adults feel hesitant to start families. China’s youth unemployment rate reached a record high of 18.8% in August, indicating the financial pressures that further dissuade young couples from having children.

China’s total fertility rate in 2022 stood at 1.2 births per woman, far below the U.S. rate of 1.7. Forecasts from the United Nations predict that by 2100, China could see its population halve, marking the steepest demographic decline globally. The nation’s share of world births is expected to decrease to 3% by 2100 from 8% in 2021, according to Austin Schumacher of the University of Washington. Even with innovations in pro-natal policies, Schumacher suggests such measures may not significantly reverse this trend.

Income stability and the affordability of raising children are major concerns. China’s economy has slowed in recent years, compounded by an ongoing real estate slump and regulatory crackdowns on various sectors that have weakened job growth for young workers. Economist Sheana Yue from Oxford Economics argues that meaningful measures to boost incomes and reduce household costs would significantly influence family planning decisions. Efforts by Chinese health authorities to encourage employers to support extended maternity leave are also underway, yet more comprehensive policies may be needed to inspire real confidence.

Urbanization adds another layer to the problem. About 65% of China’s population lives in cities, a notable increase from 19% in 1980. For many in China’s urban centers, long work hours and a high cost of living discourage marriage and childbearing, weakening the impact of any current incentives. Darren Tay, head of APAC country risk at BMI, notes that urban lifestyles and “hectic work schedules” often reduce the likelihood of starting families, even with incentives in place.

China’s approach to pro-natal policies has faced criticism for lack of meaningful incentives. For instance, there have been reports of local social workers calling women to inquire about their pregnancy status, potentially infringing on privacy. The government has also tasked local authorities with setting up public childcare centers and relaxing housing loan limits for larger families. Yet, as Tianchen Xu from the Economic Intelligence Unit points out, the success of these policies varies greatly, dependent on the financial capacity and commitment of each local authority.

Looking forward, Nomura economists predict that China may announce significant investments of up to 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) annually to encourage births during a parliamentary session in March. However, analysts argue that to reverse the trend, stronger, more direct financial incentives—especially subsidies and housing benefits—are essential. Without significant changes, China’s demographic crisis could deepen, impacting its future workforce and economic growth.

 

China and Indonesia Ink $10 Billion Deals Focusing on Green Energy and Technology

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China and Indonesia signed agreements worth $10 billion during the Indonesia-China Business Forum held in Beijing on Sunday, marking a significant step in their growing bilateral relationship. The deals cover a wide range of sectors, including green energy, technology, food, and biotechnology. This event followed a key meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, who is visiting China for the first time since assuming office in October. Notably, Prabowo’s choice of China as his first official visit as president emphasizes Indonesia’s commitment to strengthening its strategic ties with Beijing.

In a joint statement released after the leaders’ discussions, China and Indonesia outlined plans to enhance cooperation in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and the digital economy. They also agreed to work together to ensure the security of global mineral supply chains and support the global energy transition. These agreements align with both countries’ broader efforts to address climate change and secure sustainable growth.

One of the key deals signed during the forum was between Chinese battery materials producer GEM and PT Vale Indonesia. The agreement, witnessed by President Prabowo, involves the construction of a high-pressure acid leaching plant in Central Sulawesi, a crucial step in securing nickel resources. Indonesia, as the world’s largest nickel producer, plays a pivotal role in the global electric vehicle supply chain, with Chinese companies such as Tsingshan Holding Group and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt dominating the sector.

In the technology space, Indonesian tech giant GoTo Gojek Tokopedia formed partnerships with China’s Tencent and Alibaba to advance cloud infrastructure and foster digital talent development in Indonesia. These collaborations are expected to boost Indonesia’s digital economy and increase its technological capabilities.

The two countries also agreed on several measures to improve connectivity, including the introduction of multi-entry long-term visas and the expansion of direct flights between the two nations. Additionally, the agreements included cooperation in the housing sector and initiatives to increase exports of fresh coconuts from Indonesia to China.

These developments reflect the deepening ties between China and Indonesia, positioning them as key partners in the global push for green energy solutions and digital innovation.

 

China on Track to Record Its Lowest Number of New Marriages, Official Data Shows

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China is projected to experience its lowest number of new marriages since record-keeping began, with official data revealing a significant decline in marriage registrations amid a deepening demographic crisis. This trend poses serious challenges for Beijing, as a shrinking workforce and an aging population threaten the country’s economic stability.

In the first three quarters of 2024, approximately 4.74 million couples registered their marriages, marking a 16.6% decrease from the 5.69 million reported during the same period in 2023, according to data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs. This downward trajectory aligns with a broader trend since reaching a peak of over 13 million new marriages in 2013, and it is anticipated that marriages will fall below 2022’s record low of 6.83 million.

While there was a temporary rebound in marriages last year following the lifting of strict COVID-19 restrictions, this was largely viewed as a short-term spike driven by pent-up demand. The country has faced two consecutive years of population decline, with last year recording the lowest birth rate since the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949. In 2022, India surpassed China to become the most populous nation in the world.

Chinese officials have identified a direct correlation between the decline in marriages and the plummeting birth rate. Social norms and governmental regulations complicate childbearing for unmarried couples, prompting officials to implement various measures aimed at reversing this trend. These include financial incentives, public awareness campaigns, and events such as blind dating and mass weddings to encourage young couples to marry and have children.

Additionally, efforts have been made to reduce the traditional “bride price,” which can hinder marriage prospects for many poorer men, particularly in rural areas. Since 2022, pilot programs initiated by China’s Family Planning Association have sought to cultivate a “new-era marriage and childbearing culture,” promoting the societal benefits of childbearing and encouraging young people to marry and start families at a suitable age.

However, these initiatives have not succeeded in persuading many young adults, who are facing high unemployment rates, rising living costs, and insufficient social welfare amid an economic downturn. As a result, many are delaying marriage and childbirth, with an increasing number choosing to forgo them altogether.

The decline in marriages and births is also attributed to decades of population control policies that have resulted in fewer young people of marriageable age. Although China ended its one-child policy in 2015, allowing for two children, and further expanded this to three children in 2021, both marriage and birth rates continue to drop.

Changing attitudes towards marriage, particularly among young women who are becoming more educated and financially independent, further complicate the situation. Many women are growing disillusioned with marriage due to prevalent workplace discrimination and traditional gender roles that often assign them the majority of childcare and household responsibilities.

In response to rising divorce rates, China implemented a mandatory 30-day “cooling-off” period for individuals filing for divorce in 2021, despite criticisms that this may complicate exits from unhappy or abusive relationships. In the first nine months of 2024, around 1.96 million couples registered for divorce, reflecting a slight decrease of 6,000 compared to the previous year.

China’s situation mirrors trends seen in other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, where falling marriage and birth rates have prompted the introduction of various incentives, including financial support and childcare subsidies, yet with limited effectiveness.