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Zalando Revises 2025 Outlook Amid Inventory and Growth Concerns

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Zalando, Germany’s largest online fashion marketplace, has adjusted its 2025 guidance following the acquisition of rival About You. While the updated forecast reflects higher expected sales, analysts and investors expressed concern over growing inventories, heavier discounting, and signs of weaker consumer sentiment—factors that could weigh on second-half performance.

After initially gaining, Zalando’s shares fell 5.6% to their lowest level in almost a year, bringing year-to-date losses to around 25%. Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane noted that the stock’s appeal as a revenue growth play is now in question, with less potential for earnings to exceed expectations.

The company now expects 2025 gross merchandise volume (GMV) of €17.2–€17.6 billion ($19.91–$20.38 billion), representing 12–15% growth from last year’s figures for the combined group. This is a sharp increase from its previous forecast of 4–9% growth, largely due to the inclusion of About You, acquired in July for €1.13 billion.

Second-quarter GMV rose 5% year-on-year to €4.06 billion, but gross margin slipped by 80 basis points due to increased discounting. Analysts flagged that earnings quality was weaker than hoped and pointed to a 15% year-on-year inventory rise to €1.66 billion by June 30, raising the risk of more markdowns ahead.

Co-CEO Robert Gentz acknowledged weaker consumer sentiment but remained optimistic about a strong second half. Interim CFO David Schroeder said the third quarter had started well, with mid-single-digit growth expected to continue.

Zalando is also expanding its European logistics network, opening it to partners in an effort to boost growth amid rising competition from fast-fashion rivals like Shein. The company forecasts 2025 adjusted EBIT of €550–€600 million for the combined group, up from its prior estimate of €530–€590 million excluding About You. Gentz added that while U.S. tariffs would not directly affect operations, they could dampen consumer sentiment in the long term.

Treasury Yields Drop as Investors Evaluate Economic Outlook Post Fed Rate Cut

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On Friday, U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and its implications for the economic outlook. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped approximately three basis points to 4.3131%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell over three basis points, settling at 4.1849% as of 3:43 a.m. ET. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, respond in basis points—each representing 0.01%.

The drop in yields followed Thursday’s announcement by the Federal Reserve of a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%. The move, while anticipated, marked a continuation of the Fed’s gradual rate-reduction approach, which began with a 50-basis-point cut in September.

Investors closely examined Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in the post-meeting press conference for hints on future policy direction. Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to a flexible approach, stating decisions would be made on a “meeting by meeting” basis, with no predetermined path for monetary policy. Despite recent economic pressures, Powell expressed confidence, noting he was “feeling good” about the current economic landscape.

Looking ahead, market participants are focusing on the December 17-18 Fed meeting, where the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 75% probability of another rate cut. Friday’s investor attention also turns to upcoming consumer sentiment data, which could provide further insight into economic conditions. The October inflation report, set for release next week, is also expected to be a critical indicator for future Fed actions.