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Adobe’s AI Monetization Struggles Lead to Dull Forecast, Shares Drop

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Adobe (ADBE.O) has projected its second-quarter revenue to fall within Wall Street’s expectations, but it is facing challenges in the monetization of its artificial intelligence (AI) products, leading to concerns over its ability to capitalize on the growing demand for AI in creative tools. As a result, shares of the company dropped more than 4% in extended trading.

The company expects second-quarter revenue between $5.77 billion and $5.82 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by LSEG. Adobe reaffirmed its annual revenue forecast, and CEO Shantanu Narayen expressed confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on the acceleration of the creative economy powered by AI.

Despite this optimism, analysts and investors are questioning the pace of monetization for Adobe’s generative AI products. As the company pours resources into differentiating itself from competitors, it aims to enhance its vast portfolio with more AI-driven editing tools. However, there is growing skepticism about whether Adobe can quickly turn its AI offerings into substantial revenue streams.

“I think guidance is rough, and I think people are questioning, is the AI monetization quick enough?” said Parker Snook, a senior research analyst at M Science.

In an effort to stay ahead of rivals, Adobe has been aggressively integrating AI into its software products, notably Photoshop, which is widely used by professionals in a variety of industries. However, its AI and add-on offerings generated $125 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of the quarter, and the company expects to double that figure by the end of fiscal 2025, according to CFO Dan Durn.

Despite concerns over AI monetization, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria is optimistic that new products will eventually ease investor worries: “As Adobe continues to deliver new products, we expect those concerns to be replaced by excitement over those products.”

For the first quarter, Adobe reported revenue of $5.71 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $5.66 billion. The company also saw digital media revenue of $4.23 billion, which exceeded analyst expectations of $4.19 billion. On an adjusted basis, Adobe earned $5.08 per share, above the forecast of $4.97 per share.