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European AI Adopter Stocks Slide as Powerful New Models Spark Investor Caution

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Shares of European companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence have faced a sharp selloff this week, as the emergence of more advanced AI models raises concerns about potential disruption across software, data analytics, and financial services sectors.

European software stocks, including Germany’s SAP (SAPG.DE) and France’s Dassault Systèmes (DAST.PA), fell sharply on Tuesday following a downgrade of U.S. rival Adobe (ADBE.O) by broker Melius Research. Since mid-July, shares in London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L), UK software firm Sage (SGE.L), and French IT consulting company Capgemini (CAPP.PA) have dropped 14.4%, 10.8%, and 12.3%, respectively.

These companies—often labeled AI adopters—have invested heavily in AI to enhance products and services, attracting investor interest amid a shortage of European AI suppliers. However, the release of more powerful AI models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-5 and Anthropic’s Claude for Financial Services, has prompted a reassessment of their long-term competitiveness. Kunal Kothari of Aviva Investors noted that each new AI iteration challenges the business models of data providers like LSEG.

While the broader European markets have posted modest gains—FTSE 100 up 2.5% and STOXX 600 up 0.6% since mid-July—high valuations have made AI adopter stocks particularly vulnerable. SAP trades at around 45 times earnings, compared with a STOXX 600 average of 17.

Investors are debating whether AI will “eat software,” as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang famously predicted. Analysts caution that not all software companies are equally exposed. Firms with deeply embedded enterprise applications or proprietary data may retain a competitive edge. For example, UK credit data company Experian (EXPN.L) and Sage benefit from extensive integration into client workflows, making them less vulnerable to disruption.

Some experts view the selloff as a buying opportunity, noting that affected companies could leverage AI to boost earnings over time. However, market watchers warn that proving tangible returns from AI investments may be a race against the clock for major European software players.

Dassault Systèmes Delays Earnings Target to 2029, Cuts Revenue Growth Outlook

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French software firm Dassault Systèmes announced on Friday that it has extended the timeline for achieving its medium-term earnings target by one year, now expecting to reach it in 2029 instead of 2028. The company also lowered its revenue growth forecast amid weakening demand in the automotive sector and ongoing tariff-related uncertainties.

Previously, Dassault Systèmes aimed to double its non-IFRS diluted earnings per share (EPS) to between €2.20 and €2.40 by 2028 under its 2023–2028 strategy. The new timeline shifts this goal to 2029.

At its capital markets day event, the company revised down its medium-term revenue growth target to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% to 8% from 2024 to 2029. This is a reduction from the previous forecast of double-digit growth of 10% for the 2023–2028 period.

The company cited a prolonged slowdown in the global automotive industry and market volatility linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs as key challenges. Dassault Systèmes had already lowered its 2025 operating margin growth forecast in April and revised its 2024 forecasts twice last year.

These repeated downward adjustments have raised investor concerns about Dassault Systèmes’ ability to meet its medium- and long-term financial goals. Following the announcement, the company’s shares fell 1.7% as of 15:30 GMT.

Dassault Systèmes Forecasts Higher Sales and Earnings in 2025

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Dassault Systèmes has projected revenue growth of 6% to 8% for 2025, an improvement from 5% in the previous year, driven by stronger software sales in late 2024. The French software firm, which serves the automotive, aerospace, and industrial sectors, also expects diluted earnings per share to rise to between 1.36 and 1.39 euros, up from 1.20 euros in 2024. Additionally, its operating margin is forecasted to increase to a range of 32.6%–32.9%, compared to 31.9% last year.

The positive outlook follows improved performance in Dassault’s software division, where revenue grew 9% in Q4 to 1.60 billion euros, supported by strong demand in the aerospace and defense sectors. The company’s flagship 3DEXPERIENCE platform, which offers 3D modeling, data management, and project management tools, saw sales growth of 22% in Q4—up from 21% in the same quarter of 2023 and recovering from a 10% decline in Q3 2024.

Dassault also announced a long-term partnership with Volkswagen to optimize the automaker’s engineering and manufacturing processes, though financial details were not disclosed.

Meanwhile, revenue at Medidata, Dassault’s clinical trial data analytics unit, increased by just 1% in Q4, an area closely monitored by investors.

Analysts at Stifel described the results as solid despite macroeconomic challenges but noted that the company’s 2025 guidance remains cautious. Dassault’s shares rose up to 2.5% at market open before stabilizing.