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Intel’s Results to Reveal If Multibillion-Dollar Rescue Plan Is Working

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All eyes are on Intel’s third-quarter earnings report this Thursday, as investors look for signs that a wave of multibillion-dollar investments from Nvidia, SoftBank, and the U.S. government is stabilizing the struggling chipmaker under its new CEO Lip-Bu Tan.

The fresh funding has lifted Intel’s shares nearly 100% this year, outperforming even AI titan Nvidia, though expectations are high. Analysts expect a 1% drop in quarterly revenue to $13.14 billion, according to LSEG data, and a per-share loss of $0.22. Shares fell 4.5% on Wednesday, ahead of the results.

Investors are eager for clarity on whether the cash infusions are enough to revive Intel’s finances after years of costly manufacturing missteps under former CEO Pat Gelsinger. “The big question is: what does Intel’s big picture look like now, and what does their cash position look like?” said Joe Tigay, portfolio manager at Rational Equity Armor Fund.

The deals have handed Intel a crucial cash lifeline:
– Nvidia invested $5 billion, acquiring about a 4% stake.
– SoftBank added another $2 billion.
– The U.S. government took a 10% stake worth $8.9 billion, after tensions over Tan’s China ties sparked political backlash.

While these moves strengthen liquidity, they also dilute Intel’s earnings per share, analysts warn. “Share dilution is the least of Intel shareholders’ worries,” said Ryuta Makino of Gabelli Funds, noting that investors are focused on the company’s long-term strategy.

Despite new funding, Intel continues to lose ground to AMD and Arm-based rivals in CPUs, while remaining a minor player in the AI chip market dominated by Nvidia. However, the company is seeing renewed strength in PCs, with shipments rising 8% globally, and its PC division revenue expected to jump 11% to $8.12 billion.

Intel’s Panther Lake processor, built on its new 18A manufacturing node, is expected to begin shipping by late 2025 — a key test for Tan’s revised strategy, which scaled back Gelsinger’s aggressive factory expansion.

Revenue in Intel’s data center unit is projected to grow 18% to $3.95 billion, fueled by booming demand for server CPUs that pair with AI GPUs. The manufacturing segment, however, is expected to stay flat at $4.37 billion.

“The markets are giving Intel a lot of patience,” said Tigay. “These investments buy them time — but soon, the products will need to speak for themselves.”

Nvidia to Exclude China from Financial Forecasts Amid U.S. Export Restrictions

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Nvidia will stop factoring in revenue and profit from the Chinese market in its financial forecasts, CEO Jensen Huang told CNN on Thursday, citing ongoing U.S. trade restrictions on chip sales to the region. The decision comes as the U.S. maintains stringent export controls that limit Nvidia’s ability to sell its advanced chips to Chinese customers.

When asked if the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China could lead to a lifting of export controls, Huang said he was not counting on any changes:

“If it happens, then it will be a great bonus. I’ve told all of our investors and shareholders that, going forward, our forecasts will not include the China market.”

Huang reiterated his criticism of U.S. chip export curbs, arguing that they are not achieving their intended policy objectives. “The goals of the export controls are not being achieved,” he said. “The goals have to be well-articulated and tested over time.”

According to D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, Nvidia may face downside risks for 2026 if it remains unable to resume sales to China. Nvidia’s China business remains significant: in the first quarter, China accounted for 12.5% of the company’s total revenue, generating $4.6 billion largely from customers stockpiling the H20 chip before the restrictions took full effect.

The company estimates the export curbs cost it $2.5 billion in lost sales in Q1, with an $8 billion revenue hit projected for Q2. Nvidia is still exploring limited options for the Chinese market but acknowledged:

“Until we settle on a new product design and receive approval from the U.S. government, we are effectively foreclosed from China’s $50 billion data center market.”

Michael Ashley Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, said Nvidia’s move to exclude China from its forecasts simplifies its financial outlook:

“By zero-basing China, Nvidia removes a volatile variable that neither Wall Street nor the Commerce Department can reliably handicap.”