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ECB warns digital euro could trigger €700 billion bank run risk

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A European Central Bank (ECB) simulation has found that a digital euro could drain up to €700 billion in deposits from commercial banks during a severe financial panic, potentially pushing about a dozen eurozone lenders into a liquidity squeeze.

The study, published on Friday and requested by European lawmakers, explored how the introduction of a central bank–backed digital currency might affect financial stability. In a worst-case “flight-to-safety” scenario, the ECB estimated that depositors could shift €699 billion—about 8.2% of all retail sight deposits—into digital euros if each user were allowed to hold up to €3,000.

The ECB said 13 of 2,025 banks in its analysis would breach their mandatory Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) under such stress. Smaller lenders relying heavily on household deposits would face the greatest strain.
“In a digital age, bank runs happen much quicker and much more forcefully than before,” warned Markus Ferber, a European Parliament lawmaker, urging caution over high holding limits.

However, the central bank described the scenario as “highly unlikely.” Under normal conditions, outflows would total just over €100 billion, well within safe liquidity margins. The ECB said lower holding caps of €500–€2,000 would sharply reduce risk and confirmed that such limits “safeguard the stability of the financial system.”

The study also found that a €3,000 limit could trim banks’ return on equity by 0.3 percentage points, varying by country.
“You can only make the digital euro attractive if you’re willing to hurt banks a little,” said Fabio De Masi, a German MEP.

ECB Chooses AI Startup Feedzai to Combat Fraud in Upcoming Digital Euro

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has selected Portuguese artificial intelligence firm Feedzai to develop fraud-prevention systems for its planned digital euro, a project intended to strengthen Europe’s financial independence from U.S. payment networks and dollar-backed stablecoins.

The contract—valued at up to €237.3 million ($278.7 million)—was announced Thursday as part of a broader package of agreements advancing the digital euro initiative. Under the four-year deal, which could extend up to 15 years, Feedzai and its subcontractor PwC will create an AI-powered fraud scoring system capable of analyzing transactions for suspicious patterns based on user behavior, history, and interactions.

This technology will assist payment service providers in determining whether to approve or flag digital euro transactions—essentially, transfers between central bank–backed electronic wallets.

The ECB also awarded four additional contracts, ranging from €27.6 million to €220.7 million, to firms including Capgemini, which will support different technological and operational aspects of the digital currency ecosystem. Under these framework agreements, the ECB will only pay contractors once project implementation begins.

While the central bank continues to await legislative approval for the digital euro, officials describe it as a strategic response to Visa and Mastercard’s dominance in European payments and the rising influence of U.S.-linked stablecoins promoted under former President Donald Trump. If approved by mid-2026, the digital euro could be launched as early as 2029.

Feedzai, headquartered in Portugal, already monitors more than $8 trillion in global transactions annually, serving clients such as Novobanco and Wio Bank in Abu Dhabi. On the same day as the ECB announcement, Feedzai disclosed an additional $75 million in funding from Lince Capital, Iberis Capital, and Explorer Investments, signaling strong investor confidence in its role within Europe’s financial digitization push.

The partnership marks a major milestone in the ECB’s effort to balance innovation with financial security, ensuring that the future digital euro remains as safe as cash—but smarter.

European Banks Plan Euro Stablecoin to Counter U.S. Market Dominance

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A consortium of nine major European banks, including ING and UniCredit, announced on Thursday that they are creating a new Amsterdam-based company to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin by the second half of next year. The move aims to reduce reliance on U.S.-backed tokens and strengthen Europe’s role in the digital payments market.

The decision comes as U.S. financial firms prepare their own stablecoins, backed by President Donald Trump’s new regulatory framework, which could further cement America’s dominance in the sector.

Stablecoins—cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies—have grown rapidly in use, not only for crypto trading but also for mainstream payments and cross-border settlements. While the global stablecoin market is worth nearly $300 billion, euro-denominated stablecoins account for just $620 million, according to recent Bank of Italy figures. Dollar-pegged tokens dominate the market.

“The initiative will provide a real European alternative to the U.S.-dominated stablecoin market, contributing to Europe’s strategic autonomy in payments,” the banks said in a joint statement.

Still, the project faces skepticism from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that privately issued stablecoins could pose risks to monetary policy and financial stability, urging lawmakers instead to support a digital euro backed by the central bank. Some commercial banks, however, worry that such a move would drain deposits from their institutions.

In addition to ING and UniCredit, participants include Banca Sella, KBC, DekaBank, Danske Bank, SEB, CaixaBank, and Raiffeisen Bank International. A CEO will be appointed soon, and the consortium signaled that other banks may join.

A recent Deutsche Bank report underscored the urgency, noting that emerging economies are increasingly adopting dollar-backed stablecoins in place of local deposits. “This has created a global monetary dilemma: countries should adopt stablecoins or risk being left behind. Europe is under particular pressure,” the report said.

Some European efforts have struggled to gain traction. Societe Generale’s crypto unit SG-FORGE launched a euro stablecoin in 2023, but it has seen limited adoption, with just €56.2 million in circulation. Its U.S.-dollar stablecoin has even less uptake at $32.25 million.

Meanwhile, U.S. banks like Bank of America and Citigroup are exploring stablecoins, but most of the market remains dominated by non-bank players such as Tether and Circle.