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Oracle’s Record-Breaking Surge Highlights AI Trade’s Dominance in Markets

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Wall Street’s AI-driven rally hit another milestone this week as Oracle’s shares soared 36%, pushing its market value to $922 billion and reinforcing artificial intelligence as the defining force behind 2025’s equity boom.

Oracle’s AI Catalyst

  • The surge followed Oracle’s disclosure of four multi-billion-dollar cloud contracts driven by demand from AI companies such as OpenAI and xAI.

  • The move places Oracle among the 10 most valuable U.S. companies, overtaking names like Eli Lilly, JPMorgan, and Walmart.

  • Oracle’s stock has nearly doubled in 2025, making it one of the top S&P 500 performers.

AI Trade in Context

  • Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Palantir, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, and Oracle together have accounted for about half of the S&P 500’s 11% gain this year.

  • Nvidia remains the world’s most valuable company at $4.3 trillion, despite a minor pullback after its August sales forecast.

  • The technology sector overall is up 16% year-to-date, with forward P/E ratios at 28x earnings — well above the 10-year average of 22x.

Broader Market Impact

  • AI-linked stocks now dominate trading activity: 9 of the 10 most traded companies this week were AI-related (Apple being the lone exception).

  • The enthusiasm has spread beyond tech: utilities and industrials like GE Vernova, Constellation Energy, and Vistra are gaining on expectations of higher energy demand to fuel AI infrastructure.

  • This has lifted the S&P 500’s overall valuation to 22x forward earnings, near a four-year high.

Investor Sentiment

Despite concerns about overheating, analysts see Oracle’s surge as proof that capital continues flowing heavily into AI plays.

“I was very surprised by the magnitude of the (Oracle) jump and it shows there is still a lot of life left in the AI trade,” said Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services.

Robinhood Beats Profit Estimates as Post-Election Trading Surge Lifts Volumes

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Robinhood (HOOD.O) exceeded expectations for fourth-quarter profit, driven by a sharp rise in equity, options, and cryptocurrency trading after Donald Trump returned to the White House. Following the announcement, Robinhood’s shares jumped more than 14% in after-hours trading.

The company’s transaction-based revenue soared 236% to $672 million compared to the same quarter a year ago, fueled by increased fees from options, equities, and crypto trades.

Crypto trading activity was a major growth driver, with revenue from that segment rising 700% during the quarter as bitcoin approached the $100,000 mark. Investors were optimistic about pro-crypto policies expected under the new Trump administration.

“It was no secret that Robinhood’s Q4 earnings were going to be great, driven primarily by a huge uptick in crypto-related revenues,” said John Wu, President of Ava Labs.

The surge in equity and crypto markets came after Trump’s election victory, as investors anticipated deregulation and pro-business policies that would favor U.S. corporations and the growing digital asset sector.

Robinhood reported an adjusted profit of $1.01 per share, well above analysts’ expectations of 44 cents, according to data from LSEG.

The company’s assets under custody increased by 88% to $193 billion during the quarter, and quarterly net interest revenue, driven largely by margin investing, rose 25% to $296 million.

“This was a big quarter for us, so we did over $1 billion in revenue for the first time in the history of the company, and that capped off what was a record-breaking year with over $3 billion in revenue for the whole year,” Robinhood co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev said on the company’s post-earnings call.

UBS Strategist Predicts Continued Market Volatility Amid Global Economic Slowdown

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The spike in market volatility seen in early August was a “huge overreaction,” according to Gerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS. He noted that a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and a hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan had driven volatility to extreme levels, with the VIX index surging to 65 before retreating. Fowler expects volatility to remain elevated as uncertainty looms over the global economy.

Fowler believes the volatility spike was excessive, but noted that moderate levels of volatility should persist as markets respond to concerns about a potential U.S. economic slowdown and job losses. Future jobs data, including nonfarm payrolls and jobless claims, will be critical in determining whether the current slowdown leads to a recession or if rate cuts will stabilize the economy.

Fowler anticipates that markets will stabilize at higher volatility levels, trading within a range, though not seeing the strong upward momentum observed earlier this year. The outlook remains cautious as the global economy navigates this uncertain period.