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Tesla Set for Strong Quarter as Buyers Rush to Beat Expiring U.S. EV Tax Credit

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Tesla is expected to post a strong third-quarter performance, boosted by a surge in U.S. sales as customers rushed to buy electric vehicles before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired. The results, due later on Wednesday, will be closely watched for signals on how CEO Elon Musk plans to sustain growth amid tightening competition and political controversy.

The company’s new, cheaper “Standard” versions of its Model 3 and Model Y have driven fresh demand. These models are roughly $5,000 to $5,500 cheaper than earlier trims, featuring smaller batteries, weaker motors, and stripped-down interiors that omit rear screens and seat pockets. Tesla also temporarily reduced lease prices on premium versions to clear inventory.

However, these aggressive price cuts and feature reductions have squeezed profit margins, a growing concern for investors. Analysts estimate Tesla’s automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, will fall to 15.6%, down from 17.05% a year earlier.

Tesla’s overall revenue is expected to rise 4.2% year-on-year to $26.24 billion, according to LSEG data, though analysts will also look for signs that sales of pollution credits — which Tesla sells to gasoline carmakers — have tapered off following Trump administration policy changes.

Beyond financials, investors are eager for updates on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout, which Musk has described as the company’s next growth engine. He has claimed Tesla’s robotaxis could serve half the U.S. population by year-end, though specifics remain elusive. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald said the top questions now involve “fleet size, cumulative miles, and service territories” expected by Q4 and 2026.

Despite a slowdown in sales of its aging lineup and consumer backlash linked to Musk’s far-right political rhetoric, Tesla shares have risen nearly 10% this year, buoyed by a proposed $1 trillion pay package for Musk. Still, Tesla remains one of the weaker performers among the “Magnificent 7” tech giants.

The earnings call, set for 5:30 p.m. EDT, may offer a clearer view of how Musk plans to balance his AI and robotics ambitions with Tesla’s core vehicle business — the source of most of its revenue today.

Tesla Raises U.S. Lease Prices After EV Tax Credit Expiration

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Tesla (TSLA.O) has increased lease prices across all its models in the United States following the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit, which had significantly boosted EV demand over the past two years. The company’s website showed the new rates on Wednesday.

The price adjustment comes after Congress allowed key EV incentives to expire on September 30, ending tax breaks of $7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used EVs that were introduced under earlier clean energy legislation. Tesla and other automakers had used these credits to offer more attractive leasing options to consumers.

Higher Lease Prices Across the Lineup

Tesla’s Model Y, its best-selling vehicle, now leases for $529–$599 per month, up from $479–$529 previously. The Model 3, which recently underwent a design refresh, saw lease prices climb to $429–$759 per month, from $349–$699 before.
Despite these leasing changes, vehicle purchase prices remain unchanged on Tesla’s official site.

Market Pressure Mounts as Incentives Fade

The expiration of federal tax credits threatens to cool U.S. demand for electric vehicles, which had already shown signs of slowing after years of rapid expansion. Industry executives and analysts have warned that the loss of subsidies could deter new buyers, especially as higher interest rates and economic uncertainty weigh on household budgets.

According to Cox Automotive, Tesla’s U.S. market share fell to 38% in August, its lowest level in nearly eight years — a sharp decline from the over 80% share it once commanded. The fall reflects growing competition from established automakers like Ford, Hyundai, and GM, as well as new entrants from China and Europe.

Analysts said the lease price hike may further limit Tesla’s competitiveness in the short term, especially as rivals introduce lower-cost EV models and attractive financing options to capture former Tesla customers.

Tesla Shares Bounce Back After $152 Billion Drop Amid Musk-Trump Fallout

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Tesla shares recovered nearly 4% on Friday following a steep $152 billion market value wipeout triggered by a public spat between CEO Elon Musk and former U.S. President Donald Trump. The clash erupted over Trump’s criticism of a tax and spending bill that threatens to end the $7,500 electric vehicle (EV) tax credit by 2025, a move Musk openly opposed.

Earlier reports suggested that Musk and Trump might hold talks to ease tensions, with Musk signaling openness to a détente on his social platform, X. However, a White House official indicated that Trump was not interested in engaging with Musk. In a CNN interview, Trump dismissed Musk, saying, “I’m not even thinking about Elon,” and described him as having “got a problem.”

The conflict escalated when Trump threatened to cut government contracts with Musk’s companies, including SpaceX. Analysts warn that this feud could pose multiple risks for Tesla, especially as regulatory bodies like the U.S. Transportation Department influence the future of autonomous vehicle production—a key part of Tesla’s ambitions.

Despite the recent volatility, Tesla shares remain highly valued, trading at roughly 120 times expected earnings—far above many automakers and tech giants such as Nvidia. The stock has fallen 26.9% year-to-date, with Thursday’s 14% plunge reflecting investor concerns over Musk’s increasingly polarizing political stance.

Since Musk publicly supported Trump’s 2024 presidential bid last July, Tesla’s stock has experienced wild swings. Initial optimism about reduced regulatory burdens for robotaxis gave way to softness in vehicle sales and brand damage related to Musk’s politics. While initial hopes were that strong sales among Republican voters would balance out losses from liberal consumers, experts now warn that Musk’s confrontational posture risks alienating both sides.

“By alienating Republicans, Musk risks losing any remaining support, potentially triggering a collapse in Tesla’s brand perception,” said Evan Roth Smith, political strategist and co-founder of Slingshot Strategies.

Tesla did not immediately respond to requests for comment.