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Rivian and Lucid Warn of Challenges Ahead Amid Policy Shifts and Supply Chain Disruptions

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Electric vehicle makers Rivian (RIVN.O) and Lucid (LCID.O) reported disappointing quarterly earnings and issued cautious outlooks, citing impacts from changing U.S. policies, trade tensions, and supply chain issues. Rivian’s shares dropped about 4% after hours, while Lucid’s shares fell 7%.

Both companies are grappling with multiple headwinds under the Trump administration, including the removal of consumer tax credits, imposition of high tariffs on auto parts imports, and the elimination of emission fines for gas vehicle manufacturers. Additionally, China’s restrictions on exporting heavy rare earth metals—critical for EV motors—have disrupted supply chains and increased production costs in the U.S.

Rivian revealed rising costs in Q2 due to rare earth supply disruptions and raised its adjusted core loss forecast for 2024 as revenue from regulatory credit sales dwindles. The cost per vehicle rose approximately 8% year-over-year to about $118,375, largely reflecting lower production volumes rather than operational inefficiencies, CEO RJ Scaringe explained. Lower production contributed to a $14,000 increase in cost of goods sold per vehicle.

The company plans a three-week production pause in September (following a one-week pause in Q2) to integrate components and prepare for the critical launch of its smaller, more affordable R2 SUV next year.

Lucid said it largely avoided rare earth supply issues by using inventory magnets but faced tariff-related costs that pressured profit margins. The luxury EV maker also lowered its annual production forecast.

The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at September’s end removes a key demand driver. Analysts expect a sales surge in Q3 as buyers rush to benefit from the incentive before it ends, followed by a possible softening in Q4. Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff noted the company is planning countermeasures to mitigate the expected demand slowdown.

The Trump administration’s removal of fuel economy penalties has severely reduced demand for regulatory credits, a significant revenue source for Rivian and Lucid. Rivian said it now expects about half of its initially forecasted $300 million in credit revenue this year and does not anticipate any revenue from credit sales in H2 2024.

Rivian raised its adjusted core loss forecast to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion for 2024, up from prior guidance of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion, but expects to roughly break even on gross profit. The company also anticipates record deliveries in Q3 across consumer and commercial segments, including its electric delivery vans for Amazon, its largest shareholder.

Consumer Reports Calls on Congress to Reject Proposed Electric Vehicle Tax Fees

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Consumer Reports, a leading consumer advocacy organization, urged Republican lawmakers on Wednesday to abandon a proposal to impose an annual fee on electric vehicles (EVs) aimed at funding road repairs. The plan initially calls for a $250 yearly fee on EVs, with Senator Bernie Moreno proposing to increase this to $500 for electric cars and $250 for plug-in hybrids.

Consumer Reports warned the fees would impose a disproportionate financial burden on EV owners, who could pay between three and seven times more than owners of comparable gasoline-powered vehicles in federal gas taxes. The proposed fees could notably affect owners of Tesla, General Motors, and other electric vehicle brands.

Chris Harto, a senior policy analyst at Consumer Reports, criticized the fees as “punitive taxes designed to confiscate fuel savings from consumers who just want to save money for their families.”

The broader legislative context includes the U.S. House dropping a previously proposed $20 federal vehicle registration fee for all vehicles starting in 2031. The House bill also seeks to end the $7,500 new EV tax credit by the end of 2024 for most automakers, repeal a $4,000 used EV tax credit, dismantle vehicle emissions regulations, and terminate an Energy Department loan program that supports green vehicle technology development. Additionally, it aims to phase out EV battery production tax credits by 2028.

Ford has expressed concern about the bill’s provisions, particularly the elimination of EV battery production credits tied to Chinese technology, which jeopardizes its $3 billion investment in a Michigan plant currently 60% complete and expected to employ 1,700 workers.

Separately, President Donald Trump plans to sign resolutions that block California’s EV sales mandates and diesel engine regulations, according to industry and House aides.

Trump Revokes Biden’s 50% EV Target, Freezes Charging Station Funds

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U.S. President Donald Trump has revoked a key executive order from his predecessor, Joe Biden, which aimed for electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 50% of new car sales in the U.S. by 2030. In addition, Trump has halted the distribution of unspent government funds for EV charging infrastructure and signaled potential changes to policies favoring electric vehicles.

Key Points:

  • Revocation of EV Target: Trump annulled Biden’s 2021 order to have half of all new vehicles sold be electric by 2030, a target that, though non-binding, had received support from automakers.
  • Freezing Funds: Trump’s order freezes $5 billion allocated for vehicle charging stations that remains unspent.
  • State Waivers: Trump called for the end of state waivers that allow states like California to impose stricter zero-emission vehicle rules, including the plan to ban gasoline-only vehicle sales by 2035.
  • Reconsidering Emissions Rules: The Trump administration plans to review emissions regulations, which require automakers to sell between 30% to 56% EVs by 2032, in line with federal and state emissions targets.
  • Potential Elimination of EV Tax Credits: Trump’s order suggests that his administration could eliminate EV tax credits and other subsidies for electric vehicles, arguing that these policies distort the market.
  • Focus on Oil and Gas: Trump reiterated his support for increasing U.S. oil production while seeking to reverse Biden’s clean energy initiatives, including subsidies for solar, wind, and hydrogen production.