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Nvidia to Exclude China from Financial Forecasts Amid U.S. Export Restrictions

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Nvidia will stop factoring in revenue and profit from the Chinese market in its financial forecasts, CEO Jensen Huang told CNN on Thursday, citing ongoing U.S. trade restrictions on chip sales to the region. The decision comes as the U.S. maintains stringent export controls that limit Nvidia’s ability to sell its advanced chips to Chinese customers.

When asked if the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China could lead to a lifting of export controls, Huang said he was not counting on any changes:

“If it happens, then it will be a great bonus. I’ve told all of our investors and shareholders that, going forward, our forecasts will not include the China market.”

Huang reiterated his criticism of U.S. chip export curbs, arguing that they are not achieving their intended policy objectives. “The goals of the export controls are not being achieved,” he said. “The goals have to be well-articulated and tested over time.”

According to D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, Nvidia may face downside risks for 2026 if it remains unable to resume sales to China. Nvidia’s China business remains significant: in the first quarter, China accounted for 12.5% of the company’s total revenue, generating $4.6 billion largely from customers stockpiling the H20 chip before the restrictions took full effect.

The company estimates the export curbs cost it $2.5 billion in lost sales in Q1, with an $8 billion revenue hit projected for Q2. Nvidia is still exploring limited options for the Chinese market but acknowledged:

“Until we settle on a new product design and receive approval from the U.S. government, we are effectively foreclosed from China’s $50 billion data center market.”

Michael Ashley Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, said Nvidia’s move to exclude China from its forecasts simplifies its financial outlook:

“By zero-basing China, Nvidia removes a volatile variable that neither Wall Street nor the Commerce Department can reliably handicap.”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Backs Trump’s Plan to Ease AI Chip Export Curbs

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has strongly criticized U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China, calling them a “failure” that cost American firms billions in lost sales while accelerating China’s self-reliance in semiconductor development. Speaking at the Computex conference in Taipei, Huang welcomed the Trump administration’s decision to reverse some of the Biden-era controls, signaling a shift that could reshape global tech policy.

“The fundamental assumptions that led to the AI diffusion rule have been proven to be fundamentally flawed,” Huang said, referring to the Biden administration’s three-tiered export control regime, which entirely blocked sales of advanced chips to China.

Impact on Nvidia and U.S. Industry

Since the Biden administration’s controls came into effect, Nvidia’s market share in China fell from 95% to 50%, Huang revealed. Nvidia has been hit particularly hard, taking a $5.5 billion charge in April related to its blocked H20 chip, and Huang now estimates total revenue loss at $15 billion.

Despite these setbacks, Huang noted that AI research in China has continued unabated and is now being powered by local technologies, particularly chips from Huawei and other Chinese semiconductor designers. He estimated that China’s AI market will be worth $50 billion in 2025 and called the competition there “intense”.

“They would love for us never to go back to China,” he said.

Trump’s Strategy: A Shift in Direction

Huang praised the Trump administration’s plan to move away from rigid export tiers and toward a global licensing regime based on government-to-government agreements. The proposed shift could provide the U.S. more flexibility and leverage in trade negotiations while also easing pressure on U.S. tech firms.

“President Trump realises it’s exactly the wrong goal,” Huang said, arguing that isolating China from U.S. tech would not stop AI innovation and only encourage the growth of competitive alternatives.

Nvidia’s Workaround

Nvidia is now developing a new version of its Blackwell AI chip that includes slower memory, allowing it to comply with current U.S. restrictions while still serving key markets.

Rising Tensions

China responded sharply to recent U.S. moves that warned firms against using Chinese-made AI chips like Huawei’s Ascend, urging the U.S. to “immediately correct its wrongdoings.” Beijing warned that such measures violate trade agreements and undermine cooperation, threatening “resolute” countermeasures.

Industry Outlook

While the Biden administration had aimed to contain China’s semiconductor and military advancements, the unintended consequence appears to be a rapid buildup of China’s domestic AI and chipmaking capabilities. Huang’s remarks underscore the growing frustration within U.S. tech circles over policies they say are self-damaging.

Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to dominate the global AI infrastructure market, with new product announcements at Computex expected to further boost its $130.5 billion revenue base.

Lawmakers Urge Trump to Consider New Curbs on Nvidia Chips Used by China’s DeepSeek

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U.S. lawmakers are calling on President Donald Trump’s administration to consider imposing new export controls on Nvidia’s AI chips, particularly the H20 model, which they allege is being used by China’s AI company DeepSeek. Republican John Moolenaar and Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi, co-chairs of the House of Representatives Select Committee on China, sent a letter to National Security Advisor Michael Waltz urging a review of the U.S. export control system.

The lawmakers expressed concern that the H20 chip, which is not currently covered by existing U.S. export restrictions, is being used in DeepSeek’s newly released sophisticated AI model. This comes amid growing concerns in Washington over China’s rapid advancements in AI. DeepSeek, which recently launched a free AI assistant, claims its technology uses significantly less data and is far more cost-effective than incumbent models, potentially marking a shift in the AI investment landscape.

In addition to the lawmakers’ letter, the U.S. House of Representatives’ Chief Administrative Officer notified offices not to use DeepSeek’s technology, citing an ongoing review. The U.S. government has long been concerned that China could leverage AI for cyberattacks or even bioweapons development, prompting former President Joe Biden to initiate measures to limit China’s access to AI chips.

Nvidia responded, stating that its products comply with all U.S. regulations and that the company is open to collaborating with the administration on AI-related matters.