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Micron tops forecasts with AI-fueled HBM demand, sees strong Q1 revenue

Micron Technology projected first-quarter revenue of $12.5 billion ± $300 million, well above Wall Street’s estimate of $11.94 billion, as booming demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips drives growth amid the AI race.

AI demand supercharges Micron

  • Q4 HBM revenue hit nearly $2 billion, putting Micron on pace for ~$8B annually, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said.

  • HBM chips, built by stacking DRAM vertically, reduce power use while enabling massive data processing — making them indispensable for training and running advanced AI models.

  • Micron is a key HBM supplier to Nvidia, whose dominance in AI accelerators makes HBM supply one of the most competitive battlegrounds in semiconductors.

2026 outlook already sold out

  • Micron expects to lock in deals for all 2026 HBM capacity in the coming months.

  • HBM3E pricing agreements are nearly complete; HBM4 pricing talks are ongoing.

  • “The pricing on HBM4 is actually significantly higher than the pricing on HBM3E,” said Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana, citing tight supply and strong ROI expectations.

  • TSMC will partner with Micron to manufacture the base logic die for its HBM4E chips.

Financial performance

  • Adjusted Q4 EPS: $3.03, topping forecasts.

  • Adjusted gross margin forecast (Q1): 51.5%, far above expectations of 45.9%.

  • Analysts said stronger-than-expected pricing drove the margin boost.

U.S. policy and subsidies

  • Micron has received $6.2B under the CHIPS and Science Act, passed under former President Joe Biden.

  • Current Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is exploring converting subsidies into equity stakes in chipmakers, but Sadana said Micron does not expect its grant terms to change.

  • Micron recently received a disbursement after completing a milestone at its Idaho fab, Mehrotra confirmed.

Big picture

Micron is riding the wave of AI-driven chip demand, securing long-term contracts at higher prices while boosting profitability. With HBM4 set to command premium pricing, Micron is positioning itself as a critical player alongside Nvidia, Samsung, and SK Hynix in the global AI supply chain.

SK Hynix Spurs Rally in Asian Semiconductor Stocks with Mass Production of Advanced AI Chip

SK Hynix shares surged by over 9% on Thursday after the South Korean chipmaker announced the mass production of a new high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip designed for AI applications. The company revealed that the HBM3E chip, the first 12-layer version of its kind, will be ready for delivery by the end of the year. This updated chip boasts a 36 GB capacity, marking a 50% increase from the previous 8-layer version, all while maintaining the same physical thickness.

SK Hynix has positioned itself as a key player in the AI memory chip market, supplying HBM chips to major tech firms like Nvidia. With the new 12-layer HBM3E chip, the company seeks to solidify its dominance in the space, offering advanced solutions for high-end generative AI workloads.

HBM chips are dynamic random access memory (DRAM) components that are stacked vertically, allowing for more compact designs and reduced power consumption. The global HBM market is currently dominated by SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and Samsung Electronics.

Micron Technology also made headlines by issuing better-than-expected revenue and profit forecasts for its fiscal first quarter, citing strong demand for HBM chips. Micron expects $8.7 billion in revenue and profits of $1.74 per share, surpassing market estimates. This positive outlook, coupled with SK Hynix’s announcement, led to a rally in Asian semiconductor stocks.

In Japan, Tokyo Electron’s shares rose 7%, and Advantest climbed 5%, while Samsung Electronics saw a 3% gain. The South Korean Kospi index also responded positively, increasing by 2% as the sector benefitted from these developments.