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Indian IT Sector’s Fiscal 2026 Outlook Dimmed by Weak US Demand and Trade Tensions

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India’s information technology (IT) sector, one of the worst-performing industries this year, is unlikely to see a strong recovery in fiscal 2026, according to analysts. The outlook remains uncertain, following recent warnings from Accenture, the world’s largest IT services firm, which cited weak discretionary spending and lackluster demand from its clients.

Accenture’s quarterly report flagged that client budgets remained flat, with little growth in discretionary project spending. The company also noted that global trade tensions, exacerbated by new U.S. tariffs, have further dampened prospects in the United States, a key market for Indian IT firms.

Amit Chandra from HDFC Securities noted that the last few months have heightened uncertainty about the first half of fiscal 2026 and how this will affect the overall recovery rate for the year. As of now, India’s IT index has dropped 15.3%, marking its worst performance since June 2022. Major firms such as TCS, Wipro, Infosys, and HCLTech have seen losses ranging from 11.2% to 18.1% this year.

Analysts from Kotak Institutional Equities warned that a soft recovery in demand and fewer mega deals in fiscal 2025 will result in slower revenue growth in fiscal 2026 for Indian IT companies. The impact of early-stage adoption of generative AI is also expected to present challenges, they added.

Research from Citi and Morgan Stanley forecast modest growth, with Citi estimating 4% revenue growth for IT companies in fiscal 2026, similar to fiscal 2025, and Morgan Stanley highlighting subdued client spending as a key factor limiting growth. However, sectors like banking, financial services, insurance (BFSI), and healthcare have shown some signs of recovery, although many clients are currently in a “wait-and-watch mode,” potentially leading to further reductions in spending.

Accenture’s report also indicated that U.S. clients have delayed or canceled new contracts, partly due to the Trump administration’s policies, which could increase competitive pressures in other segments, despite Indian IT companies having limited exposure to these delays.

Wipro Shares Surge on Optimistic Demand Outlook

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Shares of Wipro (WIPR.NS) surged approximately 8% on Monday, positioning the company for its best day in nearly four years. This sharp rise followed a positive earnings report and an optimistic outlook for future demand, echoing trends seen in its larger IT peers.

Key Highlights:

  • Strong Q3 Performance: Wipro reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits, signaling a recovery in demand within the IT services sector.
  • Optimistic Outlook: The company forecasts a 1% sequential revenue growth for the current quarter, compared to no growth last quarter. Wipro’s CEO, Srinivas Pallia, attributed this to a gradual return of discretionary spending despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
  • Improved Forecast: Wipro’s guidance for the upcoming quarter reflects a brighter outlook, with analysts noting that deal bookings—especially small- to mid-sized deals—point to a revival in discretionary tech spending.
  • BFSI Sector Growth: Wipro’s banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) segment saw an 11% increase in revenue, indicating a resurgence in spending in this key area.
  • Analyst Optimism: Following the positive earnings, at least eight brokerages raised their rating on Wipro’s stock, and 16 increased their price targets. Analysts also highlighted the company’s impressive operating margin, which reached a three-year high of 17.5%, driven by efficient deal execution.
  • Sector-Wide Optimism: Wipro’s outlook mirrors that of its larger peers, such as TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech, signaling a broader recovery within the $254 billion Indian IT services sector, which had struggled in recent quarters due to economic uncertainty and inflation.

HCLTech Misses Q3 Revenue Estimate, Tightens Full-Year Forecast

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India’s third-largest software company, HCLTech, reported a smaller-than-expected revenue for the December quarter and revised its full-year growth forecast downwards. Despite an increase in demand anticipated for fiscal 2025, underperformance in its software business led to the company narrowing its revenue growth prediction.

Revenue and Forecast Adjustments

HCLTech’s consolidated revenue for Q3 rose by 5.1%, reaching 298.9 billion rupees ($3.45 billion), but this fell short of analysts’ expectations, which were pegged at 300.68 billion rupees. As a result, the company tightened its full-year revenue growth forecast for fiscal 2025 to 4.5%-5%, down from a previous range of 3.5%-5%. The revision reflects the completion of an acquisition of certain intellectual property (IP) assets from U.S.-based HP Enterprise last month.

Challenges in Software Business

The company’s software vertical, which constitutes 11% of total revenue, underperformed expectations. However, CEO C Vijayakumar noted an improvement in the demand environment, especially in discretionary spending, which is expected to pick up in 2025. He emphasized that clients are looking to increase their IT investments in the coming year, providing some optimism for future growth.

Profit and Deal Wins

Despite the revenue miss, HCLTech reported a 5.5% increase in net profit, which reached 45.91 billion rupees, slightly above analysts’ expectations of 45.82 billion rupees. The company also secured new deal wins worth $2.1 billion in Q3, a solid result despite a slight decline from the previous quarter ($2.22 billion) and a year-over-year increase from $1.93 billion.

Industry Outlook and Comparison

HCLTech is not alone in facing challenges in India’s tech industry, which has been experiencing slower growth due to inflationary pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts expect U.S. President-elect Trump’s pro-business policies to benefit Indian IT firms, as the North American market accounts for a significant portion of the sector’s revenue.

Shares of market leader Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) surged 5.6% last Friday after signaling a possible demand revival, even though it missed Q3 estimates. HCLTech’s stock closed 0.3% lower ahead of its earnings report. Other major Indian IT companies, including Wipro and Infosys, are expected to release their quarterly results later this week.