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Experts Divided Over Whether AI Boom Is the Next Big Bubble

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The record-breaking wave of artificial intelligence investments has sparked fierce debate across global markets, with opinions divided over whether the sector is inflating into a bubble reminiscent of the early 2000s dot-com frenzy.

According to Bank of America Global Research, 54% of surveyed fund managers now believe AI stocks are in a bubble, compared to 38% who disagree. The discussion has gained urgency as companies pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, data centers, and startups, pushing valuations to new extremes.

The Bank of England warned that a sharp market correction tied to fading AI optimism could ripple through the global financial system. “The risk of a sharp market correction has increased,” its Financial Policy Committee said in an October update.

Singapore’s GIC investment chief Bryan Yeo also described “a little bit of a hype bubble” in the venture space, saying startups labeled as AI firms are being valued “at huge multiples” of modest revenue.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos offered a nuanced view, saying industrial bubbles often leave lasting benefits even if many investors lose money. “When the dust settles and you see who are the winners, society benefits from those inventions,” he said.

Others, such as Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs and ABB CEO Morten Wierod, argue the AI investment surge remains justified given long-term potential — though both caution about bottlenecks in infrastructure and human resources.

By contrast, Michael Burry — famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis — has bet against high-flying AI stocks like Nvidia and Palantir, warning that the boom mirrors past speculative manias.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas agreed that a correction could come but emphasized it would likely be contained. “This is not financed by debt,” he said, meaning any fallout would primarily hurt equity investors.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman echoed that sentiment, admitting that investors may be “overexcited” and predicting that “someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money.”

Yet, UBS strategists note that even among those who believe in an AI bubble, about 90% are still invested — a sign of the sector’s magnetic pull despite growing caution.

Experts divided over whether AI boom is a bubble or sustainable revolution

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The massive wave of investment in artificial intelligence has triggered debate across global markets over whether the surge mirrors the dot-com bubble or represents a sustainable technological revolution. Companies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure, fueling record valuations — but also investor caution.

A BofA Global Research survey showed that 54% of fund managers now believe AI stocks are in a bubble, compared with 38% who disagree, highlighting the growing divide between optimism and skepticism.

The Bank of England warned on October 8 that global markets could tumble if sentiment toward AI shifts, saying “the risk of a sharp market correction has increased.”

Other experts, however, see the AI boom as a long-term growth story. Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs argued that the investment surge remains macroeconomically sustainable, though he noted that “the ultimate AI winners remain less clear.”

ABB CEO Morten Wierod echoed that sentiment, saying, “I don’t think there is a bubble, but we do see constraints in construction capacity,” adding that the industry is dealing with “trillions in investment” and limited human resources.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said investor enthusiasm is not inherently negative: “When people get very excited … every experiment gets funded. Some will fail, but society benefits when the winners emerge.”

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas compared the AI boom to the early 2000s tech frenzy but said it’s less likely to trigger a systemic crash because it’s not driven by debt.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman offered a more candid view: “Are investors overexcited about AI? Yes. Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money — and others will make a phenomenal amount.”

Despite these warnings, UBS strategists found that 90% of investors who believe in an AI bubble remain heavily invested, suggesting confidence in the sector’s long-term potential even as valuations soar.

IMF economist warns AI boom may echo dot-com bust but unlikely to trigger financial crisis

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The U.S. artificial intelligence investment boom could end in a dot-com-style market correction, but it is unlikely to spark a systemic financial crisis, according to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Speaking at the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, Gourinchas told Reuters that the AI frenzy mirrors the late 1990s internet bubble, with surging stock valuations and paper wealth driving consumption and inflation. “This is not financed by debt,” he said, adding that a potential crash would hurt shareholders and equity holders, but not destabilize the broader banking system.

The IMF said investment in AI chips, data centers, and computing infrastructure has fueled optimism about future productivity gains, though these benefits have yet to materialize. Unlike the dot-com era — when technology investment jumped 1.2% of U.S. GDP between 1995 and 2000 — AI-related spending has so far increased by only 0.4% of GDP since 2022.

While the IMF does not expect a direct threat to financial stability, Gourinchas cautioned that a correction could trigger a broader repricing of assets and stress on non-bank financial institutions.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook noted that AI investment, alongside lower-than-expected tariffs and easier financial conditions, has helped sustain global growth. However, Gourinchas warned that AI-driven spending and consumption could add to inflation pressures without corresponding productivity gains.

The IMF now projects U.S. inflation to ease more slowly, reaching 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. He added that the lingering effects of tariffs and reduced immigration are constraining supply and keeping prices elevated.