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Indian IT Sector’s Fiscal 2026 Outlook Dimmed by Weak US Demand and Trade Tensions

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India’s information technology (IT) sector, one of the worst-performing industries this year, is unlikely to see a strong recovery in fiscal 2026, according to analysts. The outlook remains uncertain, following recent warnings from Accenture, the world’s largest IT services firm, which cited weak discretionary spending and lackluster demand from its clients.

Accenture’s quarterly report flagged that client budgets remained flat, with little growth in discretionary project spending. The company also noted that global trade tensions, exacerbated by new U.S. tariffs, have further dampened prospects in the United States, a key market for Indian IT firms.

Amit Chandra from HDFC Securities noted that the last few months have heightened uncertainty about the first half of fiscal 2026 and how this will affect the overall recovery rate for the year. As of now, India’s IT index has dropped 15.3%, marking its worst performance since June 2022. Major firms such as TCS, Wipro, Infosys, and HCLTech have seen losses ranging from 11.2% to 18.1% this year.

Analysts from Kotak Institutional Equities warned that a soft recovery in demand and fewer mega deals in fiscal 2025 will result in slower revenue growth in fiscal 2026 for Indian IT companies. The impact of early-stage adoption of generative AI is also expected to present challenges, they added.

Research from Citi and Morgan Stanley forecast modest growth, with Citi estimating 4% revenue growth for IT companies in fiscal 2026, similar to fiscal 2025, and Morgan Stanley highlighting subdued client spending as a key factor limiting growth. However, sectors like banking, financial services, insurance (BFSI), and healthcare have shown some signs of recovery, although many clients are currently in a “wait-and-watch mode,” potentially leading to further reductions in spending.

Accenture’s report also indicated that U.S. clients have delayed or canceled new contracts, partly due to the Trump administration’s policies, which could increase competitive pressures in other segments, despite Indian IT companies having limited exposure to these delays.

GenAI to Boost India’s IT Industry Productivity by Up to 45%, EY India Survey Reveals

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Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is poised to significantly boost the productivity of India’s $254 billion IT industry, with a projected increase of 43% to 45% over the next five years, according to a survey conducted by consulting firm EY India. This surge in productivity will stem from the dual impact of GenAI’s internal integration within IT companies and the growing shift of client projects from proof of concept (POC) to full-scale production.

Leading Indian IT firms, such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys, have noted that their clients are increasingly using AI for new projects. EY India’s survey found that 89% of these companies have already begun experimenting with GenAI, with 33% of these projects already in production. Abhinav Johri, a technology consulting partner at EY India, emphasized that businesses are transitioning from experimenting with AI to adopting it at an enterprise-wide scale, showcasing the industry’s confidence in the technology’s potential.

The survey also highlighted specific roles within the IT industry that stand to benefit the most. Software development is expected to experience the largest productivity boost of approximately 60%, followed by BPO services with a 52% increase, and IT consulting at 47%. Together, these three sectors—software development, BPO services, and IT consulting—are expected to contribute to 50%-60% of the total productivity improvement across India’s tech services industry.

The integration of AI is not only helping IT firms enhance their customer service but is also contributing to cost reduction and improved revenue growth, as reported by the survey’s respondents.

Infosys CTO Discusses Evolution of Talent Management at Davos

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At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Infosys’ Chief Technology Officer, Rafee Tarafdar, discussed the evolving landscape of talent management within the Indian IT sector, highlighting shifts in traditional models and the impact of emerging technologies such as generative AI.

Key Points:

  • Shift in Talent Management: Traditionally, the IT industry has operated under a “pyramid” model, where the majority of employees are at the entry level, with fewer in more senior roles. Infosys, a major player in India’s IT sector, is exploring how this model will evolve in response to industry changes, particularly as the demand for specialized skills grows.
  • Generative AI’s Impact: The widespread use of generative AI is expected to affect job structures in the tech industry, with roles like “responsible AI” emerging to address the ethical concerns surrounding AI. Infosys is adapting by creating new roles and ensuring its employees are upskilled to meet the demands of the evolving job market.
  • Internal Experiments: Infosys is experimenting internally to understand the best approaches to talent management and skill development, focusing on creating specialists in new areas while reskilling the existing workforce. This includes new roles in AI and model engineering, both of which are expected to grow in importance.
  • Upskilling and New Hires: To stay ahead of the curve, Infosys is fostering continuous learning among its employees, with a focus on both upskilling current staff and hiring new talent for emerging roles in AI and technology.
  • Future Talent Needs: Looking ahead, Tarafdar highlighted the increasing demand for expertise in responsible AI and model engineering, signaling a shift towards more advanced and specialized roles within the tech industry.