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Russian Influence and “Dirty Money” Threaten Moldova’s Presidential Election Integrity

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Moldova is gearing up for a pivotal second round of presidential elections this Sunday, which could decisively steer the country’s future towards European integration or pull it back under Kremlin influence. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu is seeking reelection after making significant strides towards the European Union amid the ongoing challenges posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is alarmingly close to Moldova’s eastern border.

In the first round of voting, Sandu garnered 42% of the ballots, coinciding with a narrowly approved EU membership referendum that faced scrutiny due to allegations of widespread vote-buying linked to Kremlin interests. Sandu characterized this interference as an “unprecedented assault” on Moldova’s democracy, a sentiment echoed by analysts concerned about the integrity of the electoral process.

Her opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, is a former prosecutor general representing the pro-Russian Party of Socialists. If various Kremlin-aligned parties consolidate their support behind him, the upcoming election is expected to be highly competitive. During last week’s debate, Sandu, who has severed ties with Moscow, labeled Stoianoglo a “Trojan Horse” intended to advance Kremlin interests in Chisinau, Moldova’s capital.

The Risk of Electoral Manipulation

Valeriu Pasha, director of the think tank WatchDog.MD, warned that the election’s outcome hinges on whether citizens elect their president or if Russian “dirty money” tilts the scales in favor of a Kremlin-friendly candidate. Before the elections, Ilan Shor, a Russian-affiliated oligarch, reportedly proposed financial incentives for individuals supporting the pro-Russian candidate and attempted to obstruct the EU referendum. Sandu claimed this scheme aimed to buy the votes of approximately 300,000 citizens—nearly 10% of Moldova’s population.

Despite Stoianoglo polling below 10% prior to the elections, he managed to secure over 26% of the first-round votes. While both the Kremlin and Shor have denied any involvement, Moldovan officials remain vigilant against potential interference in the second round.

Addressing Domestic Discontent

Moldova’s recent electoral landscape also reveals a significant level of opposition to Sandu, who has faced multiple crises throughout her first term, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the fallout from the war in Ukraine, and a gas crisis that spiked inflation to over 30%, deepening poverty in one of Europe’s poorest nations.

Critics have also called out Sandu’s decision to schedule the EU referendum concurrently with the presidential election, arguing that it backfired. “The plan of the government was that the issue of European integration would bolster support for Maia Sandu,” noted Maksim Samorukov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. However, this strategy led to a decline in support for both Sandu and EU aspirations among discontented voters.

Stoianoglo aims to exploit this discontent, proposing a “reset” of relations with Moscow while simultaneously advocating for EU membership. However, this dual approach presents a contradiction, as it remains challenging to reconcile cooperation with Russia alongside a commitment to European integration.

Implications of a Russian-aligned Government

As the second round approaches, Moldovan officials brace for potential pro-Russian meddling. A defeat for Sandu would severely undermine Moldova’s aspirations for a European future and might worsen conditions in Transnistria, a breakaway region with around 1,500 Russian troops stationed there. Concerns persist that Transnistria could become an additional front in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Pasha outlined the dire consequences of a Russia-aligned government, warning that it could lead to the dismantling of democratic institutions, including the erosion of free and fair elections, effectively transforming Moldova into a launching pad for further Kremlin operations against Ukraine.

This election follows closely on the heels of Georgia’s elections, another former Soviet state where Russia seeks to maintain influence. Following the victory of the increasingly autocratic Georgian Dream party, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia appears to have triumphed in Georgia, with Moldova potentially facing a similar fate. The results of this Sunday’s vote will be critical in determining the region’s trajectory.

 

Russian Cash-for-Votes Allegations Emerge Ahead of Moldova’s Crucial Elections

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In the lead-up to key elections in Moldova, customs officers at Chisinau Airport have been on high alert, using sniffer dogs to search for evidence of Russian interference. Ami, a black retriever, has been giving each suitcase a thorough check, and in recent months, large sums of cash have been seized from passengers returning from Moscow. Many of these individuals had never traveled abroad before, but they came back from Russia with thousands of euros, raising suspicions of election meddling.

The influx of money is believed to be part of a larger operation orchestrated by Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch convicted of major fraud and now residing in Russia. His aim: to sway the outcome of Moldova’s elections. Flights from high-risk routes like Moscow-Istanbul-Chisinau are now met with sniffer dogs, and many passengers undergo additional baggage scans. In one day alone, authorities seized $1.5 million, with no one coming forward to claim the cash.

Moldova is heading to the polls with two important votes: a presidential election in which the pro-European Union incumbent Maia Sandu faces 10 challengers, many with pro-Russian sympathies, and a referendum on enshrining the country’s EU accession goals into the constitution. President Sandu, who has shifted Moldova sharply towards the West since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has accused Moscow of trying to undermine the country’s political stability. Sandu’s opponents, some of whom advocate for closer ties with Moscow, have drawn voters into a tense East-West political tug-of-war.

Chief anti-corruption prosecutor Veronica Dragalin, who has been investigating the illicit financial flows, revealed that a sophisticated cash-for-votes scheme was traced back to Shor. Moldovan authorities discovered that the cash was funneled through a sanctioned Russian bank, PSB. Dragalin disclosed evidence gathered through wiretaps and witness statements that indicated about 130,000 Moldovans—around 10% of the active electorate—had received payments through this operation.

The scheme allegedly aims to derail the referendum on EU accession. Shor has openly campaigned against Moldova’s EU aspirations, calling for voters to reject the constitutional amendment and support a president of his choosing. Despite his conviction for money laundering and embezzlement, Shor retains significant influence in parts of Moldova, including the autonomous region of Gagauzia, where pro-Russian sentiment remains strong.

Gagauzian deputy governor Ilya Uzun, a staunch supporter of Shor, downplays allegations of Kremlin interference. He dismisses Shor’s conviction as politically motivated and claims that the oligarch’s generous financial contributions to the region have won him overwhelming local support. Shor’s party has been banned in Moldova, and he remains under Western sanctions, but his influence persists, particularly in regions where Russian media dominates and anti-EU sentiment is high.

In Gagauzia, Shor’s investments in infrastructure, such as road improvements and pensions top-ups, have further cemented his popularity. Uzun proudly points to a newly built children’s fairground as an example of Shor’s impact, claiming that people in the region will vote as Shor directs, not for money but because they trust him.

As Moldova’s election campaign reaches its final stages, President Sandu continues to advocate for a pro-EU future. At a rally in Telenesti, she urged her supporters to vote in favor of the referendum and maintain Moldova’s European course. Describing the campaign as one marred by “lies and dirty money,” Sandu implored voters to resist efforts to derail Moldova’s path toward the EU.