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Broadcom Shares Slip as Revenue Forecast Underwhelms AI-Driven Expectations

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Broadcom shares declined over 3% in early trading on Friday after its third-quarter revenue forecast failed to meet the high expectations of investors who have been heavily bullish on chip stocks amid the ongoing artificial intelligence surge.

The Palo Alto-based semiconductor giant projected third-quarter revenue of approximately $15.80 billion, slightly above the analysts’ consensus estimate of $15.71 billion, according to LSEG data. However, analysts noted that expectations for Broadcom had already been elevated due to its critical role in AI infrastructure.

“High expectations drove a bit of downside,” said Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, reflecting the sentiment that even marginally positive forecasts may not be enough in the current AI-fueled market climate.

Broadcom provides semiconductors to major clients like Apple and Samsung and supplies advanced networking hardware essential for AI data centers, where massive data transfers are required to power generative AI models. In addition to its networking chips, Broadcom also designs custom AI processors for large cloud providers, offering an alternative to Nvidia’s expensive off-the-shelf chips.

Despite its position in the AI supply chain, Broadcom remains exposed to global trade uncertainties, particularly around U.S. export restrictions aimed at limiting China’s access to advanced technology. “AVGO is ramping two additional customers, but they are still small. So the processor business will grow this year, but at a measured rate,” Morgan Stanley commented.

Rival Marvell Technology, meanwhile, offered a more optimistic outlook last week, forecasting stronger-than-expected second-quarter revenue driven by growing demand for custom chips supporting AI workloads in data centers.

Broadcom briefly crossed the $1 trillion market cap threshold in December, reflecting investor optimism about AI-related chip demand. Its shares have climbed roughly 12% year-to-date. However, its current valuation — with a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 35.36 — remains significantly higher than Marvell’s 20.63, according to LSEG data.

Marvell Postpones Investor Day, Narrows Revenue Forecast Amid Trade-Driven Economic Uncertainty

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Marvell Technology, a major player in networking and custom AI chips, announced Tuesday it is postponing its upcoming investor day due to what it called a “dynamic macroeconomic environment,” citing ongoing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty. The decision spooked investors, sending Marvell shares down more than 6% in after-hours trading.

The company also narrowed its Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, now expecting approximately $1.875 billion, within a tighter range of ±2%, compared to its prior forecast of ±5%. The midpoint of the outlook remains unchanged.

The announcement comes as semiconductor and computing firms navigate turbulent waters driven by shifting U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump. Although Trump paused a sweeping new import tariff plan for 90 days starting April 9 to allow negotiations, a baseline 10% tariff and additional duties on key partners remain in place, impacting global supply chains and corporate planning.

Marvell’s COO Chris Koopmans previously stated that tariffs had not yet affected the company’s data center segment, but broader concerns linger industry-wide. Nvidia recently warned of a $5.5 billion impact due to U.S. export restrictions on AI chips bound for China, while ASML raised caution over its future sales outlook.

The postponement of Marvell’s investor day suggests the company may be waiting for greater clarity on trade policies and economic stability before providing long-term strategic updates to shareholders.

Marvell Shares Suffer Worst Day in 24 Years Amid Tepid AI Revenue Forecast

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Marvell Technology’s (MRVL.O) shares plunged by 19.8% on Thursday, marking their worst day in over two decades. The sharp decline follows a revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter that failed to meet investor expectations, reigniting concerns about cooling demand for AI infrastructure.

The stock closed at $72.28, reaching a four-month low of $71.65 earlier in the day. Investors had been looking to Marvell’s earnings, a key supplier of custom AI chips, for indications of sustained demand in the AI sector, which has driven significant market growth since the rise of ChatGPT in late 2022. However, Marvell’s forecast for the next quarter was only slightly above analyst expectations, falling short of the more substantial beat that investors were hoping for.

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter noted that investors were anticipating stronger revenue growth, given recent comments on capital expenditures from some of Marvell’s largest customers. With over 45 million shares traded, significantly more than the 50-day average of 14 million, the market responded nervously.

The decline in Marvell’s stock price also weighed on other chipmakers, including Broadcom, which saw its shares drop nearly 7%, and Nvidia, which slid by 5%. Marvell’s performance led to a $15 billion loss in market value, and its shares are down 18% this year after an 83% rise in 2024.

Marvell’s CEO, Matt Murphy, did highlight that the company had exceeded its fiscal 2025 AI revenue target and is optimistic about surpassing its projections for fiscal 2026. However, analysts attributed the weak forecast to a slowdown in demand for on-premise data center products, as Big Tech shifts spending towards AI chips, leaving Marvell’s core networking business, which focuses on ethernet cables and fiber channels, in a weaker position.

The semiconductor sector overall has faced pressure from tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, adding to investor concerns. Analysts from Melius Research noted that sentiment around AI semiconductor stocks is currently negative, and many brokerages have cut their price targets for Marvell following the results.