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Samsung Q4 Earnings Expected to Be Hit by Nvidia AI Chip Supply Delay

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Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), the world’s largest memory chip maker, is forecasted to report slowed profit growth in the fourth quarter, as it struggles to meet Nvidia’s (NVDA.O) soaring demand for AI chips. Despite an expected operating profit of 8.2 trillion won ($5.6 billion) in the quarter ending December, up from 2.8 trillion won a year ago, this figure represents a decline from the previous quarter’s 9.18 trillion won.

Analysts have recently revised their earnings forecasts downward, with some projecting Samsung’s operating profit to fall below 8 trillion won. A key issue has been delays in Samsung’s supply of high-end AI chips to Nvidia, which has continued to impact Samsung’s earnings, despite an October apology from the company for its third-quarter performance and an earlier pledge to address the chip shortage.

In November, Samsung reshuffled its chip division leadership, naming its chip division chief co-CEO and granting him direct control over the struggling memory chip business. Meanwhile, Samsung’s shares fell 32% last year, underperforming the broader market’s 10% decline.

Contrastingly, SK Hynix (000660.KS), a major supplier of advanced AI memory chips to Nvidia, is expected to report record earnings for the fourth quarter, benefiting from strong demand for its products.

The broader semiconductor market is facing additional pressure, with weaker demand for traditional chips used in smartphones and PCs, and rising competition from Chinese chipmakers, leading to declining chip prices. DRAM prices, particularly DDR4 chips used in personal computers, have dropped as much as 13% in Q4 and are expected to fall another 15% in the current quarter, according to TrendForce.

The South Korean won’s depreciation in December to its weakest level in 15 years, fueled by political instability and concerns over U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump, has provided some relief in the form of increased overseas earnings, but this has not been enough to offset weak chip prices.

Samsung is expected to release detailed results later in January, offering a breakdown of its earnings by business segment.

Samsung’s Q4 Profit Misses Expectations as Chip Issues and Rising Costs Weigh on Earnings

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Samsung Electronics has reported a significant shortfall in its preliminary fourth-quarter operating profit, primarily due to challenges in its semiconductor business. The South Korean tech giant estimates an operating profit of 6.5 trillion won ($4.5 billion) for the three months ending Dec. 31, well below analyst expectations of 7.7 trillion won. Although the expected profit represents a 131% year-on-year increase, it marks a 29% decline compared to the previous quarter.

The company’s earnings were affected by rising research and development (R&D) costs and the ramp-up of manufacturing capacity for advanced semiconductors. Additionally, weak demand for conventional memory chips used in PCs and mobile phones further contributed to the dip in profits.

Samsung’s efforts to provide high-end chips to Nvidia have also posed challenges. Unlike its rival SK Hynix, which is Nvidia’s main supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI GPUs, Samsung has struggled to meet the tech giant’s chip requirements. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, mentioned that Samsung needs to “engineer a new design” to supply HBM chips, although he expressed confidence in Samsung’s ability to meet this challenge.

The disappointing earnings also extended to Samsung’s logic chip division, which designs and manufactures chips for mobile phones. Analysts estimate losses could have widened to about $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter due to lower production yields and reduced demand for mobile devices, including Samsung’s premium foldable phones.

Despite the weak earnings, Samsung’s shares saw a slight uptick, with analysts noting that the company’s woes were already factored into stock prices. Competition in the chip and mobile sectors remains intense, and analysts are cautiously optimistic that chip demand may have bottomed out.

 

Kioxia’s IPO Debut Surges, Valuing Japanese Chipmaker at $5.8 Billion

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Shares of Kioxia (285A.T) surged 14% on their debut, giving the Bain Capital-backed memory chip manufacturer a valuation of over 890 billion yen ($5.80 billion). This marks one of Japan’s most significant IPOs in 2024, reflecting robust investor demand despite initial uncertainties.

IPO Highlights

Kioxia raised 120 billion yen, pricing its shares at 1,455 yen each, mid-range of the indicative price. The stock opened slightly lower at 1,440 yen but rallied to an intraday high of 1,689 yen before closing its first trading day at 1,601 yen.

CEO Nobuo Hayasaka expressed relief over the successful listing, emphasizing the company’s journey from its Toshiba origins to becoming an independent, publicly traded entity.

Background

Kioxia, formerly Toshiba Memory, was acquired by a Bain-led consortium for 2 trillion yen in 2018 after Toshiba was forced to sell its prized memory chip business due to financial distress. The acquisition marked a landmark private equity intervention in Japan’s corporate sector.

The IPO comes amid a recovery in Japan’s IPO market, with over $6 billion raised in 2024, its best performance since 2021 despite fewer overall listings.

Challenges and Market Reaction

  • Global Chip Market Uncertainty: Kioxia’s IPO was delayed multiple times, partly due to market volatility driven by U.S.-China trade tensions.
  • Valuation Adjustments: Bain Capital initially sought a 1.5 trillion yen valuation for Kioxia, but investor concerns led to a downward revision before the eventual IPO.
  • Investor Confidence: The IPO’s reception reflects strong demand for valuation discounts, with analysts noting a positive outlook for future private equity exits in Japan.

Current Ownership and Future Outlook

Post-IPO, Bain Capital’s stake in Kioxia has decreased to 50.7% from 56.2%. Despite public listing, Kioxia’s decision-making will remain aligned with Bain’s guidance.

The IPO has not advanced discussions with Western Digital, Kioxia’s long-term partner and potential merger candidate. However, Hayasaka reassured that the listing would not harm their relationship.

Financial Performance and Industry Competition

In the quarter ending September 30, Kioxia reported net income of 106 billion yen, up from 69.8 billion yen in the prior quarter, supported by an improving supply-demand balance in the memory chip market.

Analysts remain cautious about Kioxia’s long-term prospects due to fierce competition in the global memory chip market. Some worry that its valuation, at 4–5 times price-to-sales, may be difficult to sustain in a highly competitive industry.

Investor Sentiment

While some portfolio managers, such as Richard Kaye from Comgest, are skeptical about Kioxia’s valuation and growth potential, others see the IPO as a sign of Japan’s evolving market dynamics, particularly in the semiconductor sector.

Key Figures

  • IPO Price: 1,455 yen per share
  • Closing Price: 1,601 yen
  • Funds Raised: 120 billion yen
  • Valuation: 890 billion yen ($5.80 billion)

Outlook

Kioxia’s public listing offers new fundraising avenues in the capital-intensive semiconductor industry but also brings heightened scrutiny on its financials. The company aims to navigate its challenges while leveraging its strong market position in memory chips.