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China’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Sank Earlier This Year, US Officials Confirm

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China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine, the first of its Zhou-class line, sank pierside earlier this year, according to two US defense officials. The attack submarine, known for its distinctive X-shaped stern designed to enhance underwater maneuverability, was under construction at a shipyard near Wuhan. Although the Chinese Navy attempted to conceal the incident, satellite imagery captured by Maxar Technologies in March and reviewed later in June confirmed the submarine’s disappearance from its docking site.

The sinking marks a significant loss for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, which has prioritized the modernization of its fleet as part of China’s ambition to establish a military on par with that of the United States. A senior US defense official expressed little surprise at China’s efforts to hide the incident, noting that the PLA Navy would likely want to avoid publicizing the loss of its first-in-class nuclear-powered submarine.

Tom Shugart, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, who closely monitors Chinese shipyards through satellite imagery, first observed unusual activity at the location. Shugart noted a rare clustering of cranes at the shipyard—an anomaly compared to historical images of the area. Additionally, the submarine, easily recognizable by its large size and unique tail, had not returned to the pier by mid-year, raising further suspicions of the vessel’s fate.

Beijing’s naval ambitions are vast, with modernization of the PLA Navy’s submarine force being one of its highest priorities. According to a 2023 military power report, the PLA Navy currently operates a total of 60 submarines, including six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 48 diesel-powered attack submarines. China aims to further expand this fleet to 80 submarines by 2035, despite retiring older models.

The loss of the Zhou-class submarine highlights potential oversight and accountability issues within China’s defense industry. Corruption has long plagued the country’s defense sector, and the incident could raise deeper concerns about internal management within the PLA.

The US, which has identified China as its primary long-term military competitor, operates a more extensive nuclear-powered submarine fleet, including 53 fast attack submarines, 14 ballistic-missile submarines, and four guided-missile submarines. The Chinese PLA Navy, however, remains the largest in the world by total ship count, with 370 platforms, including 234 warships, compared to the US Navy’s 219 warships.

It remains unclear whether the Zhou-class submarine had been fueled with nuclear material when it sank, adding another layer of mystery to the situation. Chinese embassy officials in Washington, D.C., offered no comment, stating they had no information on the incident.

 

India’s New Nuclear-Capable Submarine Joins the Fleet: Can It Catch Up with China?

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India has added its second nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine, the INS Arighaat, to its naval fleet. The commissioning took place in late August, with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh declaring that it strengthens the country’s nuclear deterrence amid rising concerns about both China and Pakistan. Despite this advancement, India’s capabilities still lag behind China, whose People’s Liberation Army Navy boasts a fleet that includes six Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, which outmatch India’s two ballistic missile submarines in terms of firepower.

The INS Arighaat, named “Destroyer of the Enemy” in Sanskrit, joins the INS Arihant, commissioned eight years ago. Both submarines, 366 feet long with a 6,000-ton displacement, are equipped with K-15 Sagarika ballistic missiles with a range of about 750 kilometers (466 miles). However, this range limits their ability to strike deep within Chinese territory from the Indian Ocean, as analyst Carl Schuster points out.

China’s Jin-class submarines can carry missiles with a range of at least 8,000 kilometers (4,970 miles), along with the capability to carry multiple nuclear warheads, further tilting the strategic balance in Beijing’s favor. The Arighaat aims to improve India’s second-strike capability, crucial in maintaining nuclear deterrence. While India is developing longer-range missiles for future submarines, it may take years for these capabilities to materialize. For instance, Arighaat took nearly seven years from launch to commissioning, suggesting that the next Indian ballistic missile sub may not be ready until 2030.

India’s efforts to develop its sea-based nuclear deterrent are part of a broader ambition to establish a robust second-strike capability, especially as the country faces growing threats from both Pakistan and China. Pakistan is modernizing its fleet with Chinese-designed submarines, while China’s naval buildup includes regular nuclear deterrence patrols by its Jin-class submarines. India’s Arihant-class submarines, though limited in number, will help counter these regional threats, with the Indian government planning further investments, reportedly $31.6 billion over the next decade.

While China’s navy is significantly larger and more advanced, India’s naval buildup sends a strong message about its strategic ambitions. The country’s pursuit of more sophisticated submarines and long-range missiles is aimed at achieving greater parity with China and ensuring a secure nuclear second-strike force capable of deterring aggression.