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Tesla’s $8.5 Trillion Dream: Musk’s Pay Package Tied to Robots, Robotaxis, and Investor Faith

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Tesla’s board has tied Elon Musk’s new trillion-dollar pay package to an extraordinary target: growing the company’s market value to $8.5 trillion over the next decade — a figure that would eclipse today’s giants Microsoft and Nvidia combined.

The Road to $8.5 Trillion

  • Robotaxis: Tesla aims to deploy 1 million autonomous taxis, building a network that could dwarf Uber’s business. ARK Invest forecasts up to $951 billion in annual revenue from ride-hailing by 2029, with Tesla taking a higher cut of fares than rivals.

  • Optimus humanoid robots: Musk says robots could represent 80% of Tesla’s value. To hit profit targets, Tesla might need to sell 100 million robots annually, priced around $25,000 each, generating hundreds of billions in EBITDA.

  • EVs & energy: Tesla’s auto and energy units would still contribute, but analysts agree the bulk of upside must come from next-gen products.

Investor Math

  • Tesla trades at about 75x EBITDA, far higher than most automakers.

  • At that multiple, Tesla would need $113 billion EBITDA for $8.5T valuation — below the $400 billion EBITDA goal in Musk’s package.

  • Current EBITDA: $13 billion (LSEG).

Risks & Reality Check

  • Operational hurdles: Vehicle sales have declined, raising near-term challenges.

  • Market skepticism: Morgan Stanley called Tesla’s $400B EBITDA target “materially more aggressive” than its forecasts, requiring massive contributions from robots and AI markets that barely exist today.

  • Regulatory & technical roadblocks: Scaling robotaxis and humanoid robots will demand breakthroughs in autonomy, safety, and manufacturing.

Why Investors Still Believe

  • Narrative power: Tesla is valued as a growth story, not an automaker.

  • Long-term optionality: Robotaxis and robots represent potential trillion-dollar markets.

  • Alignment: Tying Musk’s pay to performance reassures some investors that bold bets are necessary to reverse slowing growth.

As Will Rhind of GraniteShares put it: “There are big operational hurdles Tesla does need to accomplish… so why not tie the CEO’s compensation to reversing some of those trends?”

Tesla’s Optimus Humanoid Robot Program Chief Milan Kovac Resigns

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Milan Kovac, head of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot program, announced his departure from the company in a post on X on Friday, citing personal reasons for the decision. Kovac, who took charge of the program in 2022 as director of Optimus and Autopilot Engineering and was promoted to vice president in 2023, stated that his decision was driven solely by the need to spend more time with his family abroad.

“I’ve been far away from home for too long, and will need to spend more time with family abroad. I want to make it clear that this is the only reason,” Kovac said on social media.

According to Bloomberg News, which first reported the news, Kovac will leave his position immediately. Leadership of the Optimus program will now transition to Ashok Elluswamy, who currently heads Tesla’s Autopilot division. Neither Tesla nor Elluswamy have publicly commented on the leadership change.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has previously emphasized the central role that the Optimus robot and full autonomy play in the company’s long-term future. “The only things that matter in the long term are autonomy and Optimus,” Musk told CNBC in May.

Musk has stated that Tesla aims to produce thousands of Optimus robots this year, though the project has faced supply chain obstacles. In April, Musk noted that China’s export restrictions on rare-earth magnets had affected production of the humanoid robots.

Tesla has increasingly focused its business strategy on autonomous technology, including both the Optimus robots and the company’s anticipated robotaxi service. Much of Tesla’s future valuation, Musk has indicated, is tied to the success of these initiatives.

Tesla to Launch Robotaxi Trial in Austin by End of June, Says Elon Musk

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Tesla is preparing to begin its much-anticipated robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, by the end of June, CEO Elon Musk confirmed in an interview with CNBC. The trial marks a significant milestone for the electric carmaker’s shift toward autonomous driving and AI-driven products.

Initially, Tesla plans to deploy about 10 self-driving vehicles in select “safest” parts of Austin, with the goal of scaling up to approximately 1,000 cars over the following months. The launch comes at a critical time for Tesla, as global sales have slowed amid growing EV competition and mounting scrutiny of Musk’s political affiliations and side ventures.

Musk emphasized that Tesla’s long-term future hinges on autonomy and its humanoid robot project, Optimus. “The only things that matter in the long term are autonomy and Optimus,” he stated, underlining the strategic pivot away from building a low-cost EV platform.

The robotaxi launch will face close examination from the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which is currently investigating incidents involving Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, particularly in low-visibility conditions. The regulator recently asked Tesla to detail how its robotaxis will operate in adverse weather.

Meanwhile, Musk revealed that Tesla is in licensing discussions with major automakers interested in using its FSD software — a potential revenue stream that could help commercialize the robotaxi platform faster.

Beyond Tesla, Musk’s AI startup xAI is also making headlines. The company is expanding a massive supercomputer cluster named “Colossus” in Memphis, Tennessee, which will feature one million of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips — part of a broader plan to train advanced AI models. xAI recently acquired a 1-million-square-foot property in Memphis to support the buildout.

While a merger between Tesla and xAI is not currently planned, Musk did not rule it out entirely, stating it would require shareholder approval if it were to move forward.