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Qualcomm Shares Fall on Downbeat Forecast for Licensing Business

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Qualcomm’s (QCOM.O) shares dropped by around 5% in early trading on Thursday following a disappointing forecast for its patent licensing business, despite strong expectations for quarterly sales and profits. The chipmaker revealed that its licensing business, which contributed 14.8% to its total revenue in the reported quarter, would experience no sales growth this year due to the expiration of its agreement with Huawei Technologies (HWT.UL).

TD Cowen analysts had initially expected the removal of Huawei’s royalty payments to have a mild impact, but they noted that the development adds to the “wall of worry” surrounding Qualcomm’s stock. However, analysts pointed out that Qualcomm has secured licensing agreements with two other Chinese smartphone manufacturers, which may help mitigate some of the losses.

The company’s first-quarter performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for AI features in mobile devices, and is often seen as a barometer for broader smartphone industry trends. Qualcomm’s second-quarter sales forecast of $10.75 billion, with adjusted profits of $2.80 per share, surpassed analysts’ estimates of $10.34 billion and $2.69 per share, respectively, as reported by LSEG data.

While Qualcomm credited growth in its smartphone division to strong sales from China, powered by government subsidies and flagship smartphone launches, it also highlighted positive performance across other business segments, including handsets, autos, and IoT.

Despite gains in 2024, Qualcomm’s stock has underperformed AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares surged by 171%. Qualcomm’s stock has increased by 6% this year, far surpassing the losses seen by competitors like Intel (INTC.O), which saw a 60% decline, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), which dropped by 18%.

As a result of the company’s outlook, Qualcomm’s median price target decreased slightly to $192, down from $199 prior to the report, according to LSEG data. The company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 15.02, significantly lower than Nvidia’s 27.64 and Intel’s 32.21.

 

Arm Lowers Full-Year Forecast, Shares Fall 6%

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Arm Holdings has revised its full-year revenue guidance downward, announcing that it will no longer meet the top end of its previous forecast. The chip technology provider, which has benefitted from the AI boom, reported a slight miss on its broader revenue expectations, sending its shares down by about 6% in extended trading.

Arm narrowed its revenue guidance for the full year to a range of $3.94 billion to $4.04 billion, down from the previous range of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. The company also adjusted its earnings per share forecast. Despite this, the company surpassed Wall Street’s expectations for the current quarter, with a forecast of $1.23 billion in revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, compared to an analyst estimate of $1.22 billion.

CEO Rene Haas explained that the downward revision was due to the company being near the end of its fiscal year, providing more visibility on its final figures. Investors had been hoping for a more optimistic outlook, particularly with Arm’s technology being adopted for AI server chips and the increasing use of its higher royalty rate Armv9 design for smartphones.

Arm’s third-quarter revenue rose by 19% to $983 million, exceeding analysts’ expectations. The company continues to benefit from its widespread use in smartphones, including Apple’s latest iPhone, where its Armv9 chips are used. However, Arm faces challenges as it attempts to compete with its largest customers by raising prices and increasing royalties. Recently, the company encountered a setback in its attempt to secure higher royalties from Qualcomm, with the dispute culminating in a court case.

Arm’s participation in the U.S. government’s $500-billion AI infrastructure venture, Stargate, highlights its significance in the AI space. However, the company’s strained relationship with major customers like Qualcomm remains a challenge as it seeks to grow in new markets such as data centers.

 

Qualcomm Forecasts Strong Q2, Shares Drop After Licensing Outlook

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Qualcomm exceeded analysts’ expectations for Q1 sales and adjusted profits but forecast a more tempered outlook for its patent licensing business, sending its stock price down 4.8% in after-hours trading. The company reported Q1 sales of $11.67 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.41 per share, significantly outperforming the expected $10.93 billion and $2.96 per share. For the upcoming fiscal second quarter, Qualcomm projected sales of $10.75 billion and adjusted profits of $2.80 per share, both surpassing analysts’ expectations.

However, the company warned that its patent licensing business, which generates revenue from companies paying royalties for 5G technology, would not see growth this year after a deal with Huawei expired. This news caused some investor concern, despite positive projections in Qualcomm’s chip business. Licensing revenue for Q2 is forecasted at $1.35 billion, below the $1.43 billion analysts anticipated.

The market’s response was mixed, with Qualcomm’s shares dropping by 4.8% after the announcement. Investors have been closely monitoring Qualcomm’s involvement in the AI and smartphone markets, and while the company continues to secure major deals, such as with Samsung and Microsoft, the uncertain future of its Huawei agreement looms large.

Despite the dip in licensing revenue expectations, Qualcomm’s position in the smartphone, automotive, and IoT markets continues to strengthen. The company reported strong handset revenue of $7.57 billion, up 13% from the previous year, and its automotive chip sales saw significant growth, reaching $961 million.