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Analysts weigh in on Trump–Xi call over trade and TikTok

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A phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday eased tensions but left major issues unresolved, particularly the fate of TikTok and broader trade negotiations. Analysts say the call highlighted China’s confidence in playing the long game, while the U.S. appeared eager to keep talks alive.

Scott Kennedy (CSIS) noted that neither side announced a firm deal, suggesting negotiations are ongoing or that leaders are holding back until more comprehensive progress is made. He argued China feels “relatively unthreatened” and that the talks are unfolding on Xi’s terms.

Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund) observed Trump’s readout was more explicit about TikTok, while Xi avoided Taiwan—perhaps reassured by recent U.S. decisions to delay arms sales and downgrade Taiwan-related engagements.

Craig Singleton (FDD) warned that China may be using summit diplomacy to stall U.S. competitive measures while extracting concessions. He said Beijing is trading symbolic gestures, like fentanyl actions, for relief on tariffs and tech controls, with Washington “hungry for a summit” more than China.

William Yang (ICG) emphasized that Beijing wants U.S. export controls lifted, particularly on advanced chips, before committing to bigger trade deliverables. He said China is betting Trump’s desire for a deal will push him toward concessions, while holding leverage in rare earth supply chains.

Danny Russel (Asia Society) downplayed the outcomes, calling the TikTok reference the only semi-concrete result, while noting the deferral of Trump’s China visit shows how slowly negotiations are moving.

Patrick Cronin (Hudson Institute) framed the call as a temporary easing of rivalry, giving both leaders economic “breathing space” while masking deeper great-power competition beneath the surface.

Ali Wyne (ICG) highlighted the prospect of three in-person meetings—at APEC in South Korea, a Trump trip to China next year, and an eventual Xi visit to the U.S.—calling the sustained engagement welcome, even if no breakthrough on TikTok emerged.

Overall, analysts see Beijing as confident, patient, and willing to leverage time and resources, while Washington seeks symbolic wins to show progress, leaving the TikTok deal and trade negotiations hanging in limbo.

U.S. Treasury’s Bessent to Meet China’s He Lifeng in Madrid on Trade, TikTok, and Money Laundering

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid next week for high-level talks covering trade, TikTok, and illicit finance, the Treasury said Thursday. The meetings, set for September 12–18, coincide with Bessent’s trip to Spain and Britain, ahead of his participation in President Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK (Sept. 17–19).

Focus Areas

  • Trade and Tariffs: The talks mark the fourth major in-person meeting between Bessent and He this year, as Washington and Beijing seek to uphold a fragile trade truce. A July meeting in Stockholm resulted in a 90-day tariff pause extension, approved by Trump until November 10. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain steep at ~55%, with agriculture a sticking point. Washington accuses China of shifting farm imports to Brazil and Argentina, undercutting U.S. soybean farmers.

  • TikTok Deadline: ByteDance’s short-video platform faces a U.S. ban unless it is sold to U.S. ownership. Trump extended TikTok’s divestment deadline to September 17. Treasury confirmed the app will be discussed in Madrid, after not featuring in July’s talks.

  • Money Laundering Cooperation: Both sides will address illicit finance, which Washington links to Chinese banks allegedly enabling Russia’s access to military technologies amid the Ukraine war. Treasury retains the authority to sanction Chinese banks involved in such transfers, though it has not yet exercised it.

Broader Context

The Madrid meeting comes as the world’s two largest economies attempt to stabilize relations:

  • Rare earth exports from China to the U.S. were restored under the current truce.

  • However, agriculture and tariffs remain unresolved, with U.S. farmers facing a shrinking share of the Chinese market.

  • Trump has maintained high tariffs on Chinese goods, including those tied to fentanyl supply chain disputes.

The outcome of the Madrid talks remains uncertain, particularly on farm trade or tariff relief, but the inclusion of TikTok and money laundering suggests Washington is broadening the agenda beyond traditional trade disputes.

U.S. Eases Chip Software and Ethane Export Curbs Amid China Trade Truce

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The United States has lifted export restrictions on chip design software and ethane to China, signaling further de-escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The move follows Beijing’s agreement to ease controls on rare earth exports—a key concession that helped maintain a fragile trade truce.

Restrictions Reversed

Leading electronic design automation (EDA) software firms—Synopsys, Cadence Design Systems, and Siemens—confirmed they are resuming sales and support for Chinese customers after receiving notification from the U.S. Department of Commerce that prior restrictions have been revoked.

  • Siemens announced Thursday it has restarted business operations in China, causing its shares to rise 1.7% after market opening.

  • Synopsys said it plans to restore customer access within three business days.

The EDA tools, essential for advanced semiconductor design, are dominated by these three firms, which together control over 70% of China’s market, according to Xinhua.

Ethane Export Curbs Also Rescinded

On the same day, the U.S. government also notified ethane producers that licensing requirements imposed in May and June had been withdrawn, allowing resumption of exports to China.

These curbs had been part of a broader U.S. response to China’s April suspension of rare earth exports, which had disrupted global supply chains for automakers, aerospace firms, chipmakers, and military contractors.

The Bigger Picture: Rare Earths for Rollbacks

According to a source familiar with the internal U.S. strategy, the Biden administration took a calculated step:

“The U.S. have escalated to de-escalate. They put restrictions on many more items in order to get the Chinese to back off on rare earths.”

Following negotiations, both sides reportedly confirmed a framework agreement in which:

  • China will review export applications for sensitive goods,

  • And the U.S. will roll back countermeasures imposed earlier this year.

China’s Commerce Ministry affirmed the arrangement last Friday, paving the way for what analysts describe as a return to February-March status quo.

Remaining Uncertainties

Despite the rollback on EDA tools and ethane, it remains unclear whether the U.S. has also lifted other strategic restrictions, including:

  • GE Aerospace’s license suspension for jet engine exports to COMAC’s C919 aircraft,

  • Or limitations on nuclear equipment suppliers selling to Chinese power plants.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has not yet commented on the latest developments.

Outlook

With both countries aiming to stabilize economic relations amid broader geopolitical tensions, more trade rollbacks could follow—particularly if the framework agreement holds. However, sector-specific restrictions tied to national security concerns are likely to remain or evolve in other forms.