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US Warns Huawei Can Produce No More Than 200,000 AI Chips in 2025, But China Is Catching Up

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Huawei Technologies will likely produce no more than 200,000 advanced artificial intelligence chips in 2025, according to Jeffrey Kessler, Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security at the U.S. Commerce Department. While this figure falls short of meeting China’s growing demand, Kessler cautioned that China is rapidly narrowing the technological gap with the United States.

Speaking before the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs South and Central Asia subcommittee on Thursday, Kessler emphasized that the production limitations do not mean the U.S. can become complacent. “China is investing huge amounts to increase its AI chip production, as well as the capabilities of the chips that it produces. So, it’s critical for us not to have a false sense of security,” he warned.

Since 2019, Washington has implemented a series of export controls restricting Huawei and other Chinese firms’ access to high-end U.S. chips and manufacturing equipment. These curbs aim to slow China’s progress in critical technologies and prevent potential military applications. Despite these hurdles, Huawei plans to supply its domestically produced Ascend 910C AI chips to Chinese customers as an alternative to Nvidia’s more advanced products.

White House AI Czar David Sacks recently stated that China is only 3-6 months behind the U.S. in AI model capabilities. However, he clarified that Chinese AI chip hardware remains about one to two years behind leading U.S. competitors such as Nvidia. Huawei’s CEO Ren Zhengfei also acknowledged the gap, noting that the company’s chips trail behind U.S. products by a generation, though Huawei continues to invest more than $25 billion annually to advance performance.

While Huawei is expanding its AI chip output, U.S. export controls have hampered Nvidia’s ability to maintain its market dominance in China. Recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China in London resulted in a tentative truce, yet tensions persist, especially after the Trump administration imposed new export controls on semiconductor design software, jet engines for Chinese aircraft, and other critical technologies.

During the congressional hearing, Democratic Representative Greg Meeks raised concerns about the Trump administration’s approach, suggesting it has blurred the lines between export control policy and broader trade issues. Kessler reassured lawmakers that export controls remain robust and effective, while also stressing that the Commerce Department will continue to actively monitor and adjust regulations as the technology landscape evolves.

At present, there are no immediate plans for further restrictions on U.S. semiconductor sales to China, though officials remain vigilant about developments in China’s domestic semiconductor sector.

Huawei CEO Admits Chip Technology One Generation Behind U.S. but Highlights Innovation Workarounds

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Huawei Technologies’ CEO Ren Zhengfei acknowledged on Tuesday that the company’s chips lag behind U.S. peers by one generation but emphasized that Huawei is overcoming this gap through innovative approaches such as cluster computing and compound chip designs. In an interview with the People’s Daily, the Chinese state media outlet, Ren stated that there is “no need to worry about the chip problem,” despite ongoing U.S. export restrictions.

Ren revealed that Huawei invests about 180 billion yuan ($25.07 billion) annually in research, with around a third allocated to theoretical research. He stressed the importance of theory for breakthroughs, noting, “Without theory, there will be no breakthroughs, and we will not catch up with the United States.”

U.S. export controls, introduced since 2019 to curb China’s access to advanced chipmaking technology, have limited Huawei’s ability to source high-end chips and manufacturing equipment. Nevertheless, Huawei’s strategy involves supplementing traditional chip advances (Moore’s law) with mathematical approaches, non-Moore’s law technologies, and cluster computing — where multiple chips or computers work together to boost performance.

Huawei’s Ascend AI chip series competes domestically with Nvidia, though U.S. restrictions bar Nvidia from selling its most advanced AI chips to China. Despite this, Huawei has developed AI systems like the “AI CloudMatrix 384,” linking 384 Ascend 910C chips in a cluster that, according to some analysts, can outperform Nvidia’s comparable offerings in certain metrics.

Ren also commented on perceptions of Huawei’s stature, saying the U.S. “has exaggerated Huawei’s achievements” and that the company still has work ahead to reach those high expectations.

This interview comes as top U.S. and Chinese officials resume trade talks in London, where technology export restrictions are key discussion points.

Huawei Nears Revenue Peak Again, Signals Post-Sanctions Comeback

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Huawei is set to announce its full-year financial results, revealing a near-return to its 2020 revenue peak despite years of U.S. sanctions. The Chinese tech giant is expected to report revenues of 860 billion yuan ($118 billion) for 2024—just shy of the record 891 billion yuan it achieved before U.S. restrictions slashed its consumer business and chip supplies.

Once in “survival mode,” Huawei now appears to be thriving again. The company has diversified into new sectors like smart driving technology, cloud software, and domestic chip development. These efforts have helped mitigate the impact of sanctions that once seemed poised to cripple its international business.

Smartphones and Software Recovery
Consultancy Isaiah Research estimates Huawei shipped over 45 million smartphones in 2024—up more than 25% year-on-year—despite continued constraints in chip yield rates. Its homegrown operating system, HarmonyOS, now powers over a billion devices. Meanwhile, Huawei’s own enterprise software system, “MetaERP,” has replaced U.S.-origin platforms like Oracle.

Auto Ambitions Paying Off
One of Huawei’s most successful pivots has been into smart vehicles. Its Aito brand—developed with Dongfeng-backed Seres—tripled its sales last year, driven by models like the M7 and M9 that feature Huawei’s driver assistance technologies. The company is also collaborating with other Chinese automakers like Chery, BAIC, JAC Group, and SAIC Group.

Innovation Under Pressure
Experts say sanctions pushed Huawei and its domestic partners toward greater innovation. “Huawei has shown incredible resilience in the face of this national state-led effort,” said Paul Triolo of the DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. He noted that Huawei’s resurgence has led to broader industry collaboration and technological independence within China’s IT sector.

Looking Ahead: Global Patchwork Strategy
While HarmonyOS and its AI chips are gaining traction, Huawei still faces challenges regaining market share in the West due to limited access to Android. However, its infrastructure and data services are growing in markets like the Middle East. Huawei’s global strategy will likely be a “patchwork affair,” said Triolo, but it could dominate in alternative AI ecosystems across key emerging markets.

Beyond Survival
With ambitions to integrate AI into industrial communication systems and expand its connected software offerings, Huawei’s focus is now on long-term growth. It also hinted at renewed international smartphone pushes, such as its high-profile Mate XT foldable phone launch in Malaysia earlier this year.