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Micron tops forecasts with AI-fueled HBM demand, sees strong Q1 revenue

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Micron Technology projected first-quarter revenue of $12.5 billion ± $300 million, well above Wall Street’s estimate of $11.94 billion, as booming demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips drives growth amid the AI race.

AI demand supercharges Micron

  • Q4 HBM revenue hit nearly $2 billion, putting Micron on pace for ~$8B annually, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said.

  • HBM chips, built by stacking DRAM vertically, reduce power use while enabling massive data processing — making them indispensable for training and running advanced AI models.

  • Micron is a key HBM supplier to Nvidia, whose dominance in AI accelerators makes HBM supply one of the most competitive battlegrounds in semiconductors.

2026 outlook already sold out

  • Micron expects to lock in deals for all 2026 HBM capacity in the coming months.

  • HBM3E pricing agreements are nearly complete; HBM4 pricing talks are ongoing.

  • “The pricing on HBM4 is actually significantly higher than the pricing on HBM3E,” said Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana, citing tight supply and strong ROI expectations.

  • TSMC will partner with Micron to manufacture the base logic die for its HBM4E chips.

Financial performance

  • Adjusted Q4 EPS: $3.03, topping forecasts.

  • Adjusted gross margin forecast (Q1): 51.5%, far above expectations of 45.9%.

  • Analysts said stronger-than-expected pricing drove the margin boost.

U.S. policy and subsidies

  • Micron has received $6.2B under the CHIPS and Science Act, passed under former President Joe Biden.

  • Current Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is exploring converting subsidies into equity stakes in chipmakers, but Sadana said Micron does not expect its grant terms to change.

  • Micron recently received a disbursement after completing a milestone at its Idaho fab, Mehrotra confirmed.

Big picture

Micron is riding the wave of AI-driven chip demand, securing long-term contracts at higher prices while boosting profitability. With HBM4 set to command premium pricing, Micron is positioning itself as a critical player alongside Nvidia, Samsung, and SK Hynix in the global AI supply chain.